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The US-Iran war may lead to a resurgence of the oil crisis
In the last century, there were two oil crises, one during the Fourth Middle East War and the other during the Iran-Iraq War. At that time, international oil prices skyrocketed from $8 to $40. The most far-reaching impact on subsequent generations was the shift in industrial chains. Light industries in Europe and America moved to Asia, taking advantage of local cheap labor and land to reduce costs, which is known as the Four Little Dragons and Four Little Tigers. South Korea relied on Park Chung-hee, Taiwan on Chiang Ching-kuo, and Singapore on Lee Kuan Yew's centralized government, concentrating funds to counter-cyclically expand investment in high-end industries, completing industrial upgrades. This is the secret behind the rise of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, which has nothing to do with democratic governance, but is purely about era dividends and government macro-control.
This time, the resurgence of the oil crisis will inevitably eliminate some industrial economies. Looking at these industrial economies in the world, whoever has a shorter stature and less reserves, and whose industrial structure cannot adapt to the high oil price market environment will be the first to drown! China, with its large size, ample reserves, and developed new energy industry, will withstand it longer. The economic flood triggered by the Strait of Hormuz will first weaken the supply chains of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia, especially Japan, where the automotive industry, built on internal combustion engine patents, will be severely affected. In March, Chinese automobile exports surged, exceeding 875,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 72.7%. Japan has not yet released its data, but it has already begun to cut production. Japan's economic glory soared during the two oil crises in the 1970s, and its decline will also be due to the oil crisis. Making good use of this oil crisis is a great opportunity to wipe out Japan and South Korea's traditional industries.
Of course, none of this can be separated from the cooperation of Comrade Trump, who does not care about the survival of allies. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, he may be thinking of using this opportunity to hit these uncooperative allies where it hurts, while extorting a huge sum of money, winning again. Trump's advantage is that he never engages in mental internal strife; whatever he can grab is a victory. If I can't fight foreigners, can I not fight you?
American financial capital and Chinese industrial capital will take advantage of this crisis to sweep and harvest globally. $CL
#Gate13thAnniversaryDr.HanLetter