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Daily Market Analysis — BTC
BTC rose to the previous resistance point of 73559 and then diverged and fell back, reaching the aggressive support at 70780 with a partial rebound. The article points to both bullish and bearish opportunities, and the trend is in line with expectations.
Regarding BTC's movement over the past two months, our view has always been firm and clear. Overall, it is the second decline sideways in a daily downtrend, with a local pullback after reaching the downward trendline within the sideways range.
Therefore, a relatively safe operation mode on a larger scale is when the price reaches and breaks below the lower boundary of the sideways range, or touches the control line around 75180 for a reverse move; as for smaller levels, just look for long-term buys and short-term profits.
From the daily chart and above, last week's news-driven price increase allowed us to catch multiple local highs and lows, but regarding the nature of this rise, Sugar Brother clearly stated two weeks ago that upward movement would only prolong sideways consolidation, not change the trend directly. Due to the ongoing bearish pressure, the trend direction remains unchanged (see details in previous analysis).
However, it is precisely because of this rise that if the daily chart breaks below again later, the selling pressure will only become greater and faster.
On the daily chart, whether it appears as an "M top" or a "tower-shaped bottom," these are just similar structures; fundamentally, they are normal fluctuations within the sideways range. Pay attention to distinguishing between "short-term structures" and "long-term downtrend," and follow the principle of aligning smaller timeframes with the larger trend.
What I want to convey is that the current bearish structure might truly signal a reversal downward, but the potential high points of the bullish structure generally stay within about 2000 USD above or below the control line.
From 4H to 12H charts, the overall view is similar to the daily, but with more detailed information due to the richer candlestick data. The current state at this level is a pullback after reaching a divergence point on the smaller timeframe, with no immediate upward participation. The support below offers limited rebound space, mainly waiting for a breakout to generate a reversal.
From 1H and lower timeframes, the decline after divergence at the previous resistance point is ongoing, with multiple breakouts along the way, indicating further downward movement is expected.
Summary: The overall trend remains the second decline sideways in a daily downtrend. Small-level analysis must adhere to this basic principle.
Intraday key levels:
Short-term resistance 71717-72042,
Short-term selling pressure 73266-73800,
Aggressive support 70388-69340 (quick entry and exit for 1:2 monitoring),
Short-term support 68315-67061 (small-level rapid dip and rebound),
Look for long-term buys at 65205-64275.
Note: Trading in a ranging market is not difficult, but many possibilities exist. It’s cumbersome to describe in words, so monitor the charts yourself. #BTC
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Below are long-term reserved levels for responding to sudden movements,
After reaching, analyze based on the pattern:
Pattern resistance 75180-76696,
Major divergence selling pressure 79582-82900 (the higher it goes, the smaller the probability, but the more aggressive the selling pressure; super bullish injection at 90930), without actively fighting upward.
First support 60721-57778 (1:2), second support 56360-54717, third support 43224-39413. These are not current zone levels but can be placed with idle funds, valid over several weeks to half a year.