I just noticed something quite interesting on Polymarket — the probability of U.S. military intervention in Iran before the end of April has skyrocketed to 96.5%. In just the past 24 hours, it has increased by 11%, indicating that the market is pricing in a very high likelihood of this event.

What’s notable is the reason behind this jump. According to Al Jazeera, a U.S. official has confirmed that the second crew member from the downed F-15E has been successfully rescued. However, the rescue operation is still ongoing, and everything is not truly safe until the rescue team can withdraw from Iran and return.

I see that Polymarket’s rules are quite clear — the market will be triggered as “Yes” if U.S. military personnel are actually operating on Iranian territory before the deadline (Eastern Time). Special forces are included, but intelligence operations are not, and only activities on land count, not territorial waters or airspace.

Overall, this surge reflects increased speculation within the community about the likelihood of direct intervention. Polymarket’s prediction markets are typically where those closely monitoring geopolitical situations place their bets, so this 96.5% figure is certainly not arbitrary.