Been tracking the crude market moves from a few weeks back when things got interesting on the geopolitical front. Oil prices jumped pretty significantly that day - WTI March contracts were up nearly 3% to $65.18 a barrel. The catalyst? A lot of moving pieces at once, but mainly investors were watching Russia and Ukraine getting back to the negotiation table in Abu Dhabi. This wasn't their first attempt though. Previous talks hadn't gone anywhere, and Russia's territorial demands were still the main sticking point.

What caught my attention was the timing. Same week, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks were scheduled for Oman. Iran had pushed back on Turkey as the venue, wanting direct U.S. engagement without intermediaries. Meanwhile, there was some military posturing happening too - a Shahed drone got intercepted near the USS Abraham Lincoln, and then some Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats were involved in a tanker incident in the Strait of Hormuz before things cooled down.

On the data side, the EIA released inventory numbers that week. U.S. crude stockpiles dropped 3.455 million barrels, which was more aggressive than the API's initial read of 11.1 million barrels the day before. Cushing saw an 743k barrel decline. Gasoline inventories actually ticked up 685k barrels, but distillate dropped hard at 5.6 million barrels. Total commercial crude sitting at 420.3 million barrels.

The dollar also got a boost from Trump signing that budget package - squeaked through Congress 217-214 in the House after Senate approval. Locked in government funding through September 2026 for most departments. USD index climbed to 97.68 that session.

Looking back, the combination of Russia-Ukraine peace efforts, Iran nuclear diplomacy, inventory draws, and fiscal policy all converged to push energy prices. The geopolitical uncertainty alone was probably worth a solid chunk of that move.