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【🔥Breaking! The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as July, is a market upheaval coming?】
Former Bank of Japan Governor Masashi Adachi just announced: a rate hike is highly likely before July! The reason is that the Middle East situation is pushing up oil prices, making inflation hard to contain. Corporate five-year inflation expectations have already reached 2.5%, and core inflation has also met the target. He also hinted that the neutral interest rate is around 1.25%, currently only at 0.75%, leaving plenty of room.
In April, the probability was only 50%, but market volatility has increased, and assets related to the yen are facing revaluation. For the crypto market, a rate hike in the yen means further tightening of global liquidity, especially suppressing arbitrage trading. Technically, BTC/USDT has recently been struggling to rebound, still below the MA60 on the daily chart, with RSI neutral to weak. If no rate hike occurs in April, there might be a short-term breather; but if it happens in July, risk assets are likely to come under pressure.
Summary: The pace of rate hikes is slow but the direction is clear. Don’t wait for the shoe to drop before reacting. Currently, focus on risk management, keep an eye on the Japan-US interest rate differential and oil price trends, and avoid blindly chasing longs.