There's something quite interesting I've recently rediscovered—Samuel Benner's market cycle theory. This guy was a 19th-century American farmer, not a professional economist, but his observations on market cycles have surprisingly lasted over 150 years and still influence traders today.

Speaking of Samuel Benner's story, it's actually quite inspiring. He has been involved in pig farming and agriculture, experiencing several major losses and economic crises. It was through these repeated cycles of being "cut the leeks" that he started pondering: why does the market always repeat itself? Is there any rule?

In 1875, Samuel Benner published his book *Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices*, proposing his cycle model. The core idea is simple: the market is not random but moves according to predictable cycles—roughly every 18-20 years. He divided this cycle into three types of years:

A Year: Panic Year—economic crises and market crashes. Benner predicted panic years including 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and later 2035, 2053. It seems quite accurate; there was a major adjustment in 2019.

B Year: High Sell Year—the market peaks, asset prices are overvalued, and it's time to sell. The years listed by Benner include 1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, 2007, and 2026. Hey, 2026—right now—is considered a good selling window according to his theory. Many traders are paying close attention to this date.

C Year: Low Buy Year—the market bottoms out, assets are cheap, and it's a good time to accumulate. Historically, 1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, and 2012 were such opportunities.

Although Samuel Benner originally studied agricultural prices (corn, pork, iron ore), later traders and economists found that this model could be applied to stocks, bonds, and even cryptocurrencies. That’s why many people have recently started discussing the Benner cycle again.

It's especially useful in the crypto market. Bitcoin has its own 4-year halving cycle, but if you look at the major bull and bear cycles, they do align with Benner’s framework. The big crash in 2019, the bottom in 2012—these all fit his predictions. For long-term traders like us, the Benner cycle provides a macro timeline—when to be aggressive, when to be cautious.

The key takeaway from Samuel Benner's theory is that market madness and panic are actually cyclical. Human nature repeats itself, and so do market patterns. When you see FOMO running wild, think of Year B; when everyone is panic-selling, think of Year C. This framework is especially suitable for those seeking long-term stable returns.

Whether you're trading stocks or cryptocurrencies, understanding these big cycles can help you avoid some mistakes. Now that 2026 is here, according to Benner’s theory, this is a date worth paying special attention to.