🔥 The probability of "Israel attacking Yemen" surges to 60%

The probability on Polymarket for the scenario “Israel attacking Yemen before 3/31/2026” has jumped to 60%, while the 7-day average is only around 18.1% → indicating that capital is reacting strongly to the new geopolitical developments.
On March 28, Houthi forces announced they launched a ballistic missile attack on southern Israel.
This is the first time this group has directly attacked Israeli territory since the escalation of conflicts involving Iran – the US – Israel.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed they detected and successfully intercepted the attack, with no casualties reported.
🎯 Message from Houthi:
Spokesperson Yahya Saree said this was a response to military campaigns by the US and Israel in various regions.
He also warned that attacks will continue until “the conflict ends.”
🌍 Regional escalation risks:
Houthi hints at the possibility of blockading Bab-el-Mandeb.
In the context of the Strait of Hormuz already being restricted, if Bab-el-Mandeb continues to be blocked:
Oil & LNG shipping routes from the Middle East to Europe and Asia could be severely disrupted.
Global energy supply shock risk.
In summary 👉 Capital on Polymarket is shifting toward a clear escalation scenario, after Houthi directly attacked Israel. But this remains a prediction market – high risk, high volatility, not certainty.
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