The war with Iran, triggered by joint US-Israeli operations at the end of February 2026, completely shocked the global oil market. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed or severely blocked, approximately 20% of the world's oil supply was put at risk, and Brent crude oil surged from the pre-war range of $70-75 to $112-115 by the end of March 2026.

Current Prices
$XTIUSD ‌$XBRUSD ‌

- Brent Crude: $112.57-114.81/barrel (March 27 close at $112.57, a daily increase of 4.22-6.30%). It has risen by 47.68% in the last month and 57.79% year-on-year.

- WTI Crude: $99.64-101.18/barrel (March 27, an increase of 5.46-7.09%).

While these levels don't quite reach the 2008 peak ($147.50), they represent the sharpest geopolitical surge since the Ukraine shock of 2022. Similar momentum is seen in futures contracts; the May 2026 Brent contract is trading around $114.57.

Main Drivers of the Rise
1. Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Tanker traffic in the strait, which carries 20 million barrels of oil and significant LNG shipments daily, almost came to a standstill. Due to Iranian threats and attacks, insurance premiums skyrocketed, and the daily number of crossings dropped from 130-240 to 5. This created an effective 8-10 million barrel reduction in global supply.

2. Geopolitical Risk Premium: According to Goldman Sachs, a risk premium of $18 is reflected in prices. The market is pricing in a potential rise of Brent to $140-150 in a prolonged shutdown scenario. 3. Demand and Other Factors: Asia's (especially excluding China) high import dependence and OPEC+'s limited spare capacity supported the rise. However, slight increases in inventories (EIA data) acted as a short-term brake.

Historical Comparison and Monthly Change

Brent prices have followed this trend over the last 6 months (approximate data):

- Early January 2026: ~$73

- Late February (pre-war): ~$75-80

- Mid-March: $90-100 range

- March 27: $112-115

This is one of the largest monthly increases since Covid. While the 2024 average is around $80, March 2026 recorded a record increase.

Short and Long-Term Forecasts
- Short-term (April-May 2026): According to the EIA, Brent will remain above $95; $120+ is possible if the Hormuz risk continues. A short-term ceasefire could bring the price down to $85-90.

- Overall 2026: The EIA forecasts an average Brent price of $66-74 (below $80 in Q3, around $70 by the end of the year). JPMorgan, however, forecasts a bearish price of around $60 in its base scenario; excess supply and inventory accumulation will push the price down.

- Long-term risks: If the conflict lasts more than 3 months, a scenario of $130-150 may come to the fore; however, a quick resolution is expected to bring the price back to the $70-80 range.

Economic Implications
High oil prices are increasing stagflationary pressure. Import bills are swelling in Asia, inflation is being pushed up by 0.8-1 percentage points, and central banks' room for interest rate cuts is narrowing. LNG prices in Europe have also risen by nearly 50%. In oil-importing countries like Türkiye, the current account deficit is widening, and gasoline and energy costs are triggering household inflation.

Things to Watch Out For
The Iran war has pushed oil into the $100+ range in the short term, but this rise is largely due to the geopolitical risk premium. If traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, prices will quickly fall to the $80-90 range; otherwise, new peaks could be seen in the summer of 2026. Markets are currently partially pricing in the worst-case scenario, but OPEC+ production, US strategic reserves, and potential ceasefire developments are the main sources of uncertainty. Volatility is high for investors in the short term; in the long term, the pressure of oversupply is prominent. Current data should be closely monitored because each new development can instantly move prices by $5-10.
#OilPricesResumeUptrend
#CreatorLeaderboard