The logic is simple: rising oil prices → stronger inflation → central banks dare not cut interest rates (or even need to raise them) → the opportunity cost of holding gold skyrockets → gold is abandoned.

See, war not only failed to make gold a safe haven but actually pushed up oil prices, turning gold into the first sacrificial lamb.

So, what about our Bitcoin?

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 last night, down 45% from its all-time high in October last year.

Even more ironically, just last week, Bernstein was shouting “the bottom is in.”

Where’s the bottom? Where is it?

You need to remember a harsh truth: in the face of the ironclad narrative of interest rates, all the halving stories, narratives, and “digital gold” are just paper tigers.

When Wall Street finds that holding US bonds can give a risk-free return of 5%, why would they come into your highly volatile market to take over? Your so-called “hedge” is just high-risk speculation in their eyes.

But! Just when you think everything is over, that man in the after-hours market strikes again.

Trump posted on Truth Social that the deadline for hitting Iran has been extended to April 6.

As soon as the news broke, futures surged, and Bitcoin also rebounded from lows.

Does this scene look familiar?

Since the outbreak of war, this is the Nth time Trump has “rescue-market after hours.” Every time the market is about to collapse, he comes out with a tweet, giving the market a sugar rush, prolonging its life for another second.

This is the core point I want to make today:

Trump’s “extension” is killing the market’s “trust.”

The first extension, the market rejoiced, thinking it was a turning point.

The second extension, the market became cautious, thinking there’s still hope.

This Nth extension, the market is numb.

What is the current market like? It’s like a girl repeatedly deceived by a scumbag. The first time he lied, she cried; the second time, she threw a fit; by the third and fourth times, she can’t even cry anymore—only heartbroken.

Every “extension” is draining the market’s hope for a “real ceasefire.”

April 6 is the next hard deadline.

If Iran still doesn’t respond substantively by then, Trump will face a deadlock:

Either extend again, causing complete collapse of credibility, with the market voting with its feet, crashing outright.

Or, take real action, causing inflation to spiral out of control, rates skyrocket, and everyone gets buried together.

The most expensive cost of this war has never been that $100 oil price but the market’s complete loss of trust in a “turnaround.”

Finally, a few harsh words for brothers still struggling in the crypto world:

1. Don’t treat Bitcoin as a “hedge asset.” In the face of real macro tightening, Bitcoin is just a high-beta risk asset. When it falls, it hits harder than anyone.

2. Don’t believe the nonsense that “the bottom is in.” Under this triple squeeze of war + inflation + tightening, anyone calling a bottom is either stupid, malicious, or trying to get you to take over their position.

3. The only thing that matters in the current market is “liquidity.” When the Fed loosens, when Trump really stops the fire, that’s when the real bottom will come. Until then, all rebounds are just opportunities to escape, not signals to charge forward.

Trump gave Iran a window, and he also gave you a window.

But remember, the market’s patience is thinner than your position.

April 6 is the test—see if it’s a mule or a horse. Until then, hold your horses, stay alive.

Don’t be that fool fooled by the last “extension” before dawn. #比特币震荡走弱 $BTC