3 scenarios for #BitcoinRecovery
$BTC bull case, base case and bear case
Bull case
$62,000 – $72,000 per $BTC
200W MA + prior ATH confluence. If Bitcoin holds $69k on weekly close, this is the bottom. 43% drawdown from ATH is already the shallowest in history, consistent with diminishing bear depth.
Base case
one more leg down
$42,000 – $55,000 per $BTC
Prior ATH breaks as support (as it did in 2022 when $20k broke). Finds floor at 60–65% drawdown range. The $40–50k zone is the 2021 consolidation range (where BTC spent most of 2021 before the final blow-off). That range acted as major resista