# BTC New Week and Three Subsequent Price Movement Scenarios

**Scenario One: Yellow Price Movement**
Price consolidates with weak rebounds near 68,000 (lower boundary of green ascending channel) for two to three days, with highs near 71,000. Subsequently breaks below the ascending channel's lower boundary and falls below 65,000, targeting around 60,000, then continues declining and breaks six heading towards five. This movement aligns with market logic and expectations. Probability: 50%.

**Scenario Two: Red Price Movement**
Price directly breaks below the ascending channel's lower boundary near 67,000 on day one and falls below 65,000, targeting around 60,000, then continues declining and breaks six heading towards five. This is an aggressive movement. Probability: 50%.

**Scenario Three: Blue Price Movement**
After price falls to the ascending channel's lower boundary near 68,000, it rebounds with highs below 74,000. Subsequently rallies fail and the price consolidates downward, breaking below the ascending channel's lower boundary and falling below 65,000, then targets around 60,000 and continues declining and breaks six heading towards five. This movement starts relatively mild but becomes exceptionally fierce subsequently. Probability: 30%.

Considering international financial markets and the Middle East three-nation conflict situation, combined with on-chain data and shifts in long/short momentum strength, I believe BTC has a higher probability of choosing Scenario Two, as this movement is somewhat surprising and breaks market expectations. The direct breakdown also catches the broader market off guard.

Regardless of which of the above scenarios BTC ultimately chooses, the outcome remains the same: the fourth wave dead cat bounce on the weekly timeframe ends, then initiates the fifth wave mid-term downtrend, breaks six heading towards five to explore lows, entering deep bear market consolidation.