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Who is the biggest beneficiary of this Middle East chaos involving the US, Israel, and Iran?
Not Israel, not Iran, but the United States. Why?
(1) Oil prices surge above $100 per barrel, American shale oil companies are thrilled, as the US is a net petroleum exporter. Of course, skyrocketing oil prices also drive up domestic inflation in the US;
(2) Capital flight from the Middle East pushes up the US dollar index, with dollar inflows taking positions in US stocks and other assets.
(3) European, Japanese, and South Korean currencies collapse, with capital obediently flowing into US Treasury bonds.
If the Middle East descends into complete chaos:
(1) Risk-off capital flows would cause BTC prices to rebound below $80,000.
(2) Hong Kong and Singapore real estate prices would rise again, with the number of Singapore family offices doubling.
(3) Oil prices could potentially surge above $150 per barrel, triggering more severe global inflation, significant economic headwinds worldwide, and possible financial crises in the West.