Yesterday, both Polymarket and Predict fun @predictdotfun launched the highest-level domestic weather prediction markets.

Although Junior Sister hasn't played with weather markets before, she still wants to analyze it from the perspective of a trader 👇

To conduct research, Junior Sister downloaded all historical trading data from Polymarket.

Weather markets differ from other tracks with so many variables. The main influencing factors include: wind direction, wind speed, humidity, air pressure, precipitation, etc.

According to the data: weather track final period accuracy is particularly high. When a certain temperature probability reaches 40%, the possibility of a reversal is only 30%.

So, will this accuracy rate be maintained between different cities? Junior Sister then proceeded to compare by grouping according to cities.

The winning rate differences above 80% among the three cities are actually quite small. It's speculated that Shanghai's weather will also be the same.