Tonight's US PCE data may unexpectedly rise, adding uncertainty to the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

On March 13th, at 8:30 PM Beijing time on Friday, the US will release its January PCE data. The market expects PCE to rise 2.9% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month; core PCE may rise to 3.1% year-on-year, the largest increase since April 2024. Analysts point out that although recent CPI data shows some easing of inflationary pressures, the higher weighting of PCE on commodity prices means that price increases in some goods, such as software and jewelry, could drive up core PCE. If core PCE significantly outpaces CPI, the gap could be the largest in decades. Since the Federal Reserve pays more attention to the PCE indicator when formulating policy, rising inflation may weaken expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict is pushing up oil prices and could further increase energy, transportation, and food costs, bringing new upside risks to future inflation trends.