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#IranDeploysMinesInStraitOfHormuz Iran war has changed experts' Fed expectations. Morgan Stanley, one of the world's largest banks and recently filed for spot ETFs in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, stated that the U.S. Federal Reserve might alter its interest rate cut schedule amid inflation concerns.

The bank’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, wrote that the Iran-related events could lead to rising oil prices and increase inflation risk in the U.S.

“Rate cuts may be delayed, but then they could also rise to 3”
In the latest bank analysis signed by Gapen, it was stated that inflation remains strong and unemployment is still low:

“These two factors give the Fed the flexibility not to rush into rate cuts. Therefore, the schedule could change, and the Fed might postpone rate cuts to a later period in 2026. But then, the likelihood of three rate cuts increases. As a result of these cuts, the policy rate could fall to around 2.75% - 3%.”

The base scenario remains unchanged
However, analysts note that the bank’s main scenario has not changed. The market’s expectation of “first June, then September” remains the bank’s baseline target. However, the report mentions that even if the scenario stays the same, the risks are tilted in different directions.

It is not expected that the Fed will make any rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting next week.

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