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Currently, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands around 70,200 and has dipped to the lower band near 69,500. In the short term, bears are dominant, indicating a retracement phase from a high level.
This is mainly due to the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and delaying rate cut expectations, leading to tightening dollar liquidity. Funds are flowing out of high-risk assets like Bitcoin and into safer assets such as US Treasuries and gold. Simply put, the market is experiencing a liquidity crunch, and the first to be cut are the volatile assets. Additionally, the market generally has high leverage of 50-125x, so small price declines trigger margin calls and forced liquidations. This passive liquidation causes further declines, creating a vicious cycle of forced selling and margin calls, sharply amplifying short-term drops.
Recommendation: Short around 69,900 targeting 68,000 with a stop-loss near 70,500.