XRP is trading near $1.38, down approximately 61 percent from its late-2025 peak, yet three significant developments are building momentum beneath the surface that markets have not yet priced in.
Ripple is acquiring BC Payments to secure an Australian Financial Services License, XRP ETFs have attracted over $1.4 billion in cumulative inflows since November 2025 despite price weakness, and daily transactions on the XRP Ledger have surged 170 percent to over 2.7 million, signaling a potential disconnect between price and fundamentals.
Ripple Expands Regulatory Footprint with Australian License Acquisition
BC Payments Deal Details
Ripple announced on March 10, 2026, that it plans to acquire BC Payments Australia to obtain an Australian Financial Services License, with the transaction expected to complete by April 1, 2026. The acquisition will enable Ripple to offer its full Ripple Payments platform in Australia, managing the complete transaction lifecycle including customer onboarding, compliance, fund settlement, foreign exchange, liquidity management, and final payments while integrating traditional banking systems with digital asset networks.
Fiona Murray, Managing Director of APAC at Ripple, stated that “Australia is a key market for Ripple, and an AFSL strengthens our ability to scale Ripple Payments across the region.” The move addresses Australia’s “de-banking” challenge, where major banks including Commonwealth Bank, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac have imposed restrictions on cryptocurrency transactions.
Global Licensing Momentum
The Australian acquisition adds to Ripple’s growing portfolio of over 75 regulatory licenses worldwide. Recent additions include payment licenses in Singapore, the UAE, and the UK, as well as conditional approval for a U.S. national trust bank charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in late 2025.
This global compliance strategy positions Ripple to work with institutions seeking regulated digital asset solutions, with the Australian license enabling the company to upgrade from a settlement tool provider to a full payment infrastructure provider in the region.
XRP ETFs Demonstrate Resilient Demand Amid Price Decline
Sustained Institutional Inflows
Spot XRP exchange-traded funds have accumulated over $1.4 billion in net inflows since their launch in November 2025, demonstrating remarkable resilience even as XRP’s spot price has fallen sharply. The funds have not recorded a single day of net outflows since their debut, an achievement unmatched by any other crypto ETF product. Total assets under management across the XRP ETF complex reached approximately $1.51 billion.
Institutional Holder Base
13F filings reveal that about 15.9 percent of XRP ETF assets are held by identifiable institutional investors, with Goldman Sachs emerging as the largest known holder with approximately $153.8 million in exposure. Other institutional holders include Millennium Management, Citadel Advisors, and Jane Street.
The inflows reflect support from dedicated XRP investors, with the remaining approximately 84 percent of assets believed to be held by retail investors who do not file 13F disclosures.
Supply Dynamics
For every $1 billion in ETF inflows, approximately 500 million XRP are removed from active circulation as funds must hold the underlying tokens in institutional custody. This structural supply absorption, combined with exchange reserves at multi-year lows, creates potential for a supply squeeze if demand continues.
XRP Ledger Network Activity Hits Record Highs
Transaction Volume Surge
Daily payments on the XRP Ledger have climbed to over 2.7 million transactions as of February 2026, representing a 170 percent increase from approximately 1 million daily payments in late December 2025. This marks the highest level of network activity in 12 months and reflects growing adoption across payment systems and decentralized finance applications.
The surge in successful payments—transactions validated and permanently recorded on the distributed ledger—indicates real network usage rather than speculative activity. Active addresses have remained steady at approximately 40,000 daily, consistent with institutional settlement network expectations.
AMM and DeFi Growth
Automated market maker deposits on the XRP Ledger’s decentralized exchange have exceeded 14,000, reaching all-time highs following recent protocol upgrades. The activation of Permissioned Domains in early February 2026, followed by the launch of a Permissioned DEX, enables banks and financial institutions to trade in controlled, compliant liquidity environments while meeting KYC and AML requirements.
Real-world asset tokenization on the network has reached approximately $461 million in total value, further expanding XRP’s utility beyond simple payments.
Permissioned DEX Institutional Applications
The Permissioned DEX represents a significant infrastructure upgrade designed to facilitate institutional participation in DeFi while maintaining regulatory compliance. This feature allows regulated entities to transact in segregated liquidity pools, potentially expanding the network’s institutional use cases over a multi-year adoption horizon.
Price Structure and Technical Levels
Current Trading Range
XRP is currently compressing within a tightening wedge between resistance near $1.50 and rising support near $1.30 established from February lows. The token trades at approximately $1.38.
The $1.50 level represents a critical resistance zone that has rejected multiple advance attempts. A clean break above this level could target $1.61 initially, with larger upside objectives near $1.90 and $2.20 if momentum builds. The bullish scenario would require confirmation through RSI moving above 50 and MACD turning positive.
Support Levels and Downside Risk
XRP’s immediate support sits at $1.34, with stronger support in the $1.31-$1.32 zone. Loss of this level would likely resolve the wedge pattern lower, potentially targeting the $1.12 area. The 200-day SMA at $2.22 highlights the distance required for a full trend reversal.
Fundamental vs. Price Divergence
Historical patterns suggest that gaps between rising network usage and stagnant prices have often preceded sharp rallies. In both 2017 and 2020, spikes in transaction volume and wallet activity preceded significant price appreciation by several weeks. The current divergence between on-chain fundamentals and price action may represent a leading indicator of delayed breakout potential.
FAQ: XRP Catalysts and Price Outlook
Q: What regulatory licenses has Ripple recently acquired?
A: Ripple is acquiring BC Payments to obtain an Australian Financial Services License, expected to complete by April 1, 2026. This adds to over 75 global licenses including payment licenses in Singapore, UAE, and the UK, plus conditional U.S. national trust bank charter approval.
Q: How much have XRP ETFs attracted since launch?
A: Spot XRP ETFs have accumulated over $1.4 billion in net inflows since November 2025, with no single day of net outflows recorded. Goldman Sachs is the largest known institutional holder with approximately $153.8 million.
Q: What is the current level of XRP Ledger network activity?
A: Daily payments on the XRP Ledger have reached over 2.7 million transactions as of February 2026, a 170 percent increase from late 2025. AMM deposits have exceeded 14,000, reaching all-time highs following Permissioned Domains and Permissioned DEX upgrades.
Q: What are the key technical levels for XRP?
A: Resistance sits at $1.50, with upside targets at $1.61, $1.90, and $2.20 above that level. Support is at $1.34 and $1.31-$1.32, with loss of this zone potentially leading to $1.12.
Q: Why might XRP’s price not yet reflect positive fundamentals?
A: Historical patterns show network activity often leads price by several weeks, as seen in 2017 and 2020 rallies. Current divergence may represent a leading indicator, though markets require confirmation through sustained technical breaks.
