Arthur Hayes Says He Won't Bet on Bitcoin Now, Waits for Fed Money Printing

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has stated he would not invest in Bitcoin at current levels, preferring to wait until the U.S. Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy and “printing money” to support the American war machine amid escalating conflict with Iran.

In a March 10, 2026 podcast interview, Hayes warned that prolonged geopolitical tensions could trigger a massive sell-off in equities and Bitcoin, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency below $60,000 before a policy-driven recovery.

Hayes’s Current Bitcoin Strategy

Wait-and-See Approach

Arthur Hayes, who has projected Bitcoin to reach $250,000 in 2026, told the Coin Stories podcast that he is currently refraining from investing in the cryptocurrency. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes stated.

His caution reflects uncertainty about whether Bitcoin has reached its price bottom. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at approximately $69,926, down 45 percent from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

Fed Policy as Trigger

Hayes emphasized that his buying decision hinges on central bank action rather than geopolitical developments themselves. “The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he explained.

He clarified his position on the relationship between war and Bitcoin: “While some argue ‘war is good for Bitcoin,’ the more accurate view is that money printing is good for Bitcoin.” Hayes said he will begin buying when the Fed starts easing monetary policy and printing money.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment

Potential for Deeper Declines

Hayes warned that ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to significant market disruption. “With the unfortunate war between US and Iran, I think that there is a situation where the longer that this carries on, there could be a massive sell-off in equities and Bitcoin,” he said.

He suggested that such a scenario could push Bitcoin below $60,000, potentially triggering “a big cascading of liquidations down.” Bitcoin briefly touched the $60,000 level on February 6, 2026, before entering a mild uptrend.

Historical Context

Hayes noted that the window for sub-$100,000 Bitcoin may be closing. He said he doesn’t anticipate there being many more years when Bitcoin will trade below that level, implying that the current price range represents a limited opportunity for accumulation before structural factors drive prices higher.

Long-Term Price Outlook

$250,000 Year-End Target

Despite his current caution, Hayes maintains his long-term bullish conviction. He has held onto his $250,000 year-end price prediction for Bitcoin as recently as October 2025, suggesting that his near-term hesitation does not reflect a change in his fundamental outlook.

Contrasting Analyst Views

Other analysts express more confidence in the short-term trajectory. Michaël van de Poppe recently pointed to benefits for Bitcoin following a “strong surge” in the Nasdaq, stating: “There are not many arguments left for uncertainty, and in that principle, I do think we’ll see way more upside into Bitcoin & Altcoins during the coming period.”

This divergence highlights the uncertainty in current market conditions, with some analysts focusing on technical factors while Hayes emphasizes macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

Market Context

Bitcoin currently trades near $69,926, down approximately 1.5 percent over 24 hours but showing relative stability compared to recent volatility. The cryptocurrency remains significantly below its October 2025 peak of $126,000 but has recovered from February lows near $60,000.

The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to generate uncertainty in financial markets, with oil prices and risk assets sensitive to developments in the Middle East.

FAQ: Arthur Hayes Bitcoin Outlook

Q: Why is Arthur Hayes not buying Bitcoin at current levels?

A: Hayes prefers to wait until the Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy and printing money to support war efforts, which he views as the true catalyst for Bitcoin appreciation. He remains uncertain whether Bitcoin has reached its price bottom and warns that prolonged geopolitical tensions could trigger further declines below $60,000.

Q: What is Hayes’s long-term Bitcoin price target?

A: Hayes maintains his projection that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 in 2026, a target he has held since October 2025. His near-term caution does not reflect a change in his long-term bullish conviction.

Q: How does Hayes view the relationship between war and Bitcoin?

A: Hayes distinguishes between direct and indirect effects, stating that while some argue “war is good for Bitcoin,” the more accurate view is that “money printing is good for Bitcoin.” Central bank policy responses to war, rather than conflict itself, drive Bitcoin appreciation.

Q: What price level does Hayes identify as critical?

A: Hayes suggests Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 if geopolitical tensions persist, potentially triggering cascading liquidations. He also noted that the window for sub-$100,000 Bitcoin may be closing, implying limited time for accumulation at current levels.