Warning: Tonight's CPI May Trigger a Nuclear-Level Move in BTC

At 20:30 tonight, the US February CPI data will be released. The expected and previous values are both 2.4%. This data contains significant uncertainty and is considered a "nuclear-level" event, with the life-and-death battle at the 70,000 USD level for BTC about to ignite.

On the news front, there are two completely different scenarios. If the released value > 2.4%, it indicates that inflation is more persistent than expected, the Fed's rate cut expectations are dashed, the US dollar will rally, and BTC is likely to be sold off, with the 68,000 support level at risk. If the released value ≤ 2.4%, the market will interpret it as controlled inflation, stable rate cut expectations, a weakening US dollar, and BTC may break through 71,500, moving towards 73,000 - 74,000.

Technical analysis shows that on the 1-hour candlestick chart, the MACD yellow and white lines are crossing above the zero axis, signaling bullish control. However, trading volume is shrinking, indicating that the rally lacks genuine buying power from major players, and the market is waiting for news. Low volume increases vulnerability to negative shocks; if the CPI data is poor, the 68,000 defense line could be easily broken. The resistance at 71,500 is a rebound pressure level, while the support zones are at 68,700 - 68,200. If it falls below 68,000, the bullish momentum weakens, and the 65,000 bottom support zone could become the next target.

In terms of trading strategy, if the released value ≥ 2.4%, consider going long on dips around 69,000 - 68,700 with a stop loss at 68,000, targeting 71,500 - 73,000 - 74,000. If the value < 2.4%, avoid long positions and wait for a bottom signal around 65,000 - 66,000 to add longs gradually.

My personal judgment is that CPI is likely to stay around 2.4% or slightly higher. The market may dip to around 69,000 before rebounding, but be prepared for a data shock or a breach of 68,000. The market is always full of opportunities; the key is to stay calm and manage risk properly. $BTC