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Will history rhyme again?
In 2022, after BTC dropped to 26,000 and shook for about a month from May 12 to June 11, it dropped again to 17,000.
In this cycle, after BTC fell to 80,000 and shook for about two months from November 21 to January 20, it dropped again to 60,000.
The characteristic of this cycle is quick drops, but it might shake for a longer period.
After BTC dropped to 17,000 in 2022, it gently oscillated upward for two months from June 18 to August 19, then started to decline again.
This is a cycle where short- and medium-term moving averages are intertwined below, waiting for the long-term moving average to converge.
Currently, after BTC reached 60,000 in this cycle, it has been shaking for about a month since February 6. The next likely scenario is still a sideways market.
At present, if there are no black swan events, it might resemble the upward shake in 2022.
However, tomorrow’s CPI data could be bearish, Trump’s rhetoric about ending the Iran conflict might still be unresolved, and Trump’s visit to China from late March to early April could be a positive sentiment. It remains uncertain whether it can continue to shake upward.