In response to the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in early March 2026 and subsequent events such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade and attacks on refineries, here is an in-depth analysis and market forecast based on the current situation (March 7, 2026):

1. Core Event Background
• Strait of Hormuz "Chokehold": The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officially announced the closure of the strait on March 2. Currently, traffic has plummeted by 90% from normal levels, with approximately 411 oil tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf.
• Energy Infrastructure Damage: A refinery operated by Saudi Aramco with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day and Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities were attacked by drones and forced to shut down.
• Supply Gap: Disruption of about 20 million barrels of liquid fuel transportation daily, accounting for nearly 20% of global supply.
2. Impact on the Global Economy: From "Premium" to "Stagflation"
This conflict causes structural damage to the economy, far exceeding the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022:
• Inflation Surge Again: The surge in energy prices directly pushes up global CPI. Goldman Sachs predicts that every $10 increase in oil prices will raise global inflation by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to abandon its original rate cut plans in 2026, maintaining a benchmark rate of **3.75%** or higher.
• Supply Chain Disruptions: Shipping rates soar, ships are forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding two weeks to transit times. This is a "fatal blow" to East Asian economies (such as Japan and South Korea), which heavily rely on strait energy, potentially causing GDP contractions of 1% to 3%.
• Manufacturing Cost Crisis: The refinery explosions lead to shortages of refined products (gasoline, diesel), with costs in chemicals, logistics, and aviation industries rising sharply. The global economy faces a "high oil price, low growth, high interest rate" stagflation shadow.
3. Impact on Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Safe Haven or Risk?
Bitcoin’s performance in this crisis does not resemble "digital gold"; instead, it acts more like a leveraged risk asset:
• Short-term Pressure (Downside Risk): In the early stages of the conflict, BTC fell from $72,000 to about $66,500, a significant decline. The reason is that geopolitical risks triggered liquidity tightening, prompting investors to sell high-volatility assets first to obtain USD liquidity.
• Loss of Safe-Haven Status? Compared to gold breaking through $5,000/oz, BTC’s risk resistance is questioned in the current environment. With rising global inflation expectations and market anticipation of sustained high interest rates, non-asset assets like BTC face valuation pressures.
• Liquidity Contradiction: On one hand, geopolitical conflicts undermine confidence; on the other hand, if the Federal Reserve injects funds (such as the $3 billion injected on March 3) to address liquidity crises, BTC may receive passive support.
Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast
• Volatility and Bottoming: If oil prices break above $100, triggering a second panic in financial markets, BTC could drop to key support levels of $60,000 or even $50,000.
• Reversal Signal: Only when the war causes the US or global central banks to restart "massive liquidity injections" (quantitative easing) to rescue the economy will BTC see a "hedge against inflation" rally, reaching new all-time highs. Summary: The market is currently in the "initial storm" phase. Whether the Strait of Hormuz can reopen within a week is a key observation point. If the strait remains closed for more than 21 days, the risk will evolve from mere asset price volatility into a systemic financial crisis.
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