Bitcoin hits a new monthly high of $74,050: Analyzing risk asset sentiment and market logic amid macro shifts

On March 5, 2026, the global risk asset markets experienced a strong synchronized rally. Bitcoin (BTC) reached a high of $74,050 in the early hours today, hitting a monthly new high since February 5. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific stock markets performed notably well, with the KOSPI index soaring 11.02% and the Nikkei 225 rising 4.28%. U.S. crypto-related stocks also generally closed higher, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) up 10.37% and Coinbase (COIN) up 14.57%.

This rally was not an isolated market sentiment surge; it was driven by multiple macro factors resonating together: the White House submitted Kevin Wirth’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair to the Senate, the Senate did not pass a vote to halt Trump’s Iran sanctions, and subtle shifts in geopolitical and monetary policy expectations collectively prompted a re-pricing of risk assets.

This article will analyze the structural logic behind this Bitcoin rally from the event itself, following the timeline and causal chain, dissect mainstream market views and controversies, examine the authenticity behind the narratives, and project various possible future scenarios. As of Gate market data, on March 5, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $72,414.3, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.73 billion, a market cap of $1.33 trillion, and a market share of 55.26%. The price increased by 1.99% within 24 hours.

Macro Shifts and Risk Asset Resonance

On March 5, 2026, the global financial markets displayed typical risk-on characteristics. After a range-bound fluctuation in February, Bitcoin surged strongly in the early hours today, reaching a high of $74,050, its highest in a month. The total cryptocurrency market cap also rebounded, surpassing $2.538 trillion.

In stark contrast yet in harmony with traditional markets, Japan and South Korea’s stock markets opened sharply higher. The KOSPI index rose 565.69 points to close at 5,654.72, up 11.02%; the Nikkei 225 gained 2,319 points to close at 56,564.54, up 4.28%. U.S. crypto concept stocks also generally saw significant gains in the previous trading session, indicating a synchronized recovery in global risk appetite.

The immediate catalyst for this rally was macro-political events: the White House confirmed it had submitted Kevin Wirth’s nomination as Fed Chair to the Senate, which could signal a slight shift in future monetary policy; simultaneously, the Senate did not pass a vote to stop Trump’s military actions against Iran, leading to a reassessment of geopolitical tensions. The combination of these factors reinforced market expectations for liquidity and risk asset reallocation.

From Geopolitical Tensions to Liquidity Expectations

To understand the market movements on March 5, it’s necessary to view them within a broader temporal context.

Early to mid-February 2026: markets experienced a sharp correction. On February 6, South Korean and Japanese stocks plunged sharply. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $60,000, and the total crypto liquidation exceeded 18 billion yuan. During this period, panic spread, silver prices also tumbled. The turbulence was partly driven by fears of escalating Middle Eastern conflicts and US Treasury statements indicating no rescue for cryptocurrencies.

Late February 2026: geopolitical tensions continued to intensify. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz heated up, raising concerns over global energy supply disruptions, causing oil prices to spike and inflation expectations to rise again. Bitcoin’s performance during this period showed high correlation with traditional risk assets, briefly surpassing $70,000 before retreating. Market discussions centered on the tension between cryptocurrencies’ safe-haven and risk asset attributes.

Early March 2026: macro events entered a dense catalytic phase. The White House officially submitted the new Fed Chair nomination, and the Senate’s vote on Iran-related military actions fell short of expectations. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, pointed out that the longer the US remains engaged in Iran-related military operations, the higher the fiscal costs, and the more likely the Fed will support markets through rate cuts or monetary expansion, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. This logic was validated in the market on March 5.

Quantitative Perspective on Market Linkages

From data, this rally exhibits several structural features worth noting.

First, the evolving correlation between Bitcoin and macro assets. Traditionally, a weaker dollar favors risk assets like Bitcoin. However, Bank of America’s February survey showed that investor short positions on the dollar had fallen to their lowest since 2012. More notably, since early 2025, Bitcoin has shown an unusual positive correlation with the dollar index, with a 90-day correlation coefficient reaching 0.60. If this correlation persists, a rebound in the dollar due to short covering could lift Bitcoin as well. The market performance on March 5 partly confirms this structural shift.

Second, the amplification of risk asset resonance. On March 5, both Korean and Japanese stocks and Bitcoin hit new highs simultaneously. This is not coincidental. From capital flows, global macro funds, when re-pricing geopolitical risks, have included Bitcoin in a “risk asset” basket similar to Asia-Pacific stocks. The over 11% single-day rise of KOSPI indicates very strong risk appetite, and as a 24-hour global asset, Bitcoin was among the first to capture this sentiment shift.

Third, market depth and liquidity structures still pose risks. Despite reaching new highs, liquidity depth has not fully recovered from the sharp volatility in early February. On February 6, when Bitcoin dropped to $60,000, over 570,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation of $2.601 billion. This rapid deleveraging cleared space for subsequent gains but also exposed the fragility of the crypto market under extreme conditions.

Table: Key Market Data Comparison (as of March 5, 2026)

Mainstream Narratives and Controversies

Current market interpretations of the March 5 rally mainly focus on these mainstream views:

1. Liquidity easing expectations. The White House’s submission of the Fed Chair nomination, combined with geopolitical tensions and fiscal expansion fears, led markets to pre-price future monetary easing. Under this framework, Bitcoin, as one of the most liquidity-sensitive assets, led the rally. This aligns closely with Hayes’ analysis.

2. Geopolitical risk and safe-haven paradox. Some observers note that despite tensions in the Middle East and a rise in traditional safe-haven assets like gold, Bitcoin also gained, which seems counterintuitive to the “risk-off” sell-off pattern. Some argue that Bitcoin is currently perceived as a “digital gold” and a “growth tech” hybrid, capable of exhibiting different attributes under various macro scenarios. When inflation expectations rise due to conflicts, Bitcoin’s anti-inflation narrative may be activated.

3. Technical breakthroughs and position games. From a trading perspective, Bitcoin’s support around $60,000 since early February and its breakout on March 5 are seen as technical signals of a new upward phase, reinforced by short covering and momentum.

Controversies mainly revolve around two points: whether Bitcoin’s positive correlation with the dollar can sustain, and whether further escalation of geopolitical conflicts will strengthen or reverse the current rally logic.

Inner Tensions in Risk Asset Logic

Within the macro narrative of “risk asset euphoria,” it’s essential to critically assess its authenticity and sustainability.

Objectively, Bitcoin did hit a new monthly high, and Asian stock indices opened sharply higher—these are observable facts. The timeline of macro events clearly points to the Fed nomination and Middle Eastern votes as catalysts.

However, establishing a direct causal link between these events requires a more rigorous logical chain. The most plausible explanation is: markets expect that geopolitical conflicts will lead to US fiscal expansion, which in turn will pressure future monetary policy to loosen, ultimately benefiting risk assets. Each link in this chain involves uncertainties: Will conflicts escalate further? How high will fiscal costs be? Will the Fed really shift policy? All are uncertain.

Speculative reasoning suggests that current market pricing assumes the Fed will ultimately be a “supporter” rather than an “inflation fighter.” If future data or policy signals contradict this, positions built on this logic could face sharp adjustments. As Yellen warned, the Fed must beware of market perceptions that “inflation will fall to 3% but the Fed is not serious about returning to 2%.” If such expectations become entrenched, high inflation could become persistent.

From Price Fluctuations to Structural Evolution

This macro-driven rally impacts the crypto industry beyond just prices.

Impact on asset attribute perception: markets are gradually forming a consensus that Bitcoin is not an isolated alternative asset but an integral part of the global macro trading matrix. This means future analysis of Bitcoin’s movements must incorporate Fed policies, geopolitical risks, the dollar index, and stock futures. It’s a sign of market maturity and will lead to more complex volatility dynamics.

Impact on mainstream asset allocation: as Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks and crypto concept stocks strengthens, traditional financial institutions may indirectly gain exposure to Bitcoin via crypto-related equities. Companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase, whose stock prices are highly sensitive to BTC, serve as alternative channels for institutional entry into crypto. This structure could further bind crypto markets to traditional finance.

Impact on industry infrastructure: geopolitical risks pose real operational challenges for crypto platforms. As one of the global crypto hubs, any turmoil in the Middle East could affect fiat on/off ramps, fund flows, and compliance operations. Managing risks amid political volatility will be a key factor in platform competitiveness.

Future Market Scenarios

Based on current facts, we can project several possible future scenarios. These are purely logical speculations, not price forecasts.

At this juncture, the key variable is not the price itself but whether the macro logic driving the price changes. The March 5 rally essentially reflects the market pricing in a “dovish Fed” expectation. Whether this continues depends on upcoming US inflation data, Fed officials’ statements, and the evolution of Middle Eastern tensions.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s monthly high, along with the synchronized opening of Asian stock indices, sketches a macro risk sentiment map for early March 2026. Behind this rally are the intertwined effects of White House and Fed nominations, Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, and liquidity expectations. For market participants, understanding this linkage is more valuable than chasing short-term price swings. Looking ahead, the crypto market is no longer an isolated digital realm but deeply integrated into the global macro trading landscape. Investors should monitor geopolitical agendas and on-chain indicators, and understand the ongoing tug-of-war between Fed policy paths and market consensus.