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The market is acting strangely, so I had to study the situation in Iran.
The Iranian government is elected by the people, but the president only handles the economy, healthcare, transportation, infrastructure, and monetary policy.
The theocratic leader, Khamenei, oversees the military, media, and judiciary, but holds no official government position.
Khamenei has been decapitated.
The government is relatively pro-American, but
the military, media, and judiciary have very strong revenge sentiments. There is a traditional stronghold of martyrdom and total sacrifice, which will inevitably lead to fierce retaliation. Among them, the military is divided into the regular army and the Revolutionary Guard, with the Revolutionary Guard’s revenge sentiment being even more intense.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is a very serious trigger for a financial crisis.
The US’s actions against Venezuela and Iran are essentially aimed at lowering oil prices. Lower oil prices reduce inflation and pave the way for rate cuts.
That’s why the market gave a strong rebound on Monday.
But with the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, the opposite happened, pushing oil prices and inflation rates higher... Inflation is the real Achilles' heel of the US economy.
The market then plummeted, and it was a rare double whammy for gold and US stocks.
This kind of market is rare and usually seen before an economic crisis.
Should I short gold?!
I’m not an expert in this area and hope to gain broader perspectives and critiques.