Friends, the Iran-Israel-US tension has escalated considerably, so I sat down and thought about it: How will this affect oil, inflation, and Bitcoin? I'm watching the news; it's the fourth day of the operation, six soldiers have been killed, and retaliations continue. As an ordinary citizen, I decided to write down my own thoughts without getting bogged down in numbers. I'm not an expert, just someone who follows the markets. First, oil… Iran is controlling those straits, tankers are in danger. I already saw it on the news, prices immediately skyrocketed. People are saying, "If the war and tension continue, gasoline prices will rise." I think fuel and heating bills will upset us all a bit more this winter. In the short term, it looks like everything from groceries to transportation will increase in price. But if the tension subsides in a week or two, I hope prices will breathe a little easier. As for inflation… When oil prices rise, the cost of everything increases. Inflation in the US wasn't fully under control anyway, and now this has come up. I think the Trump administration's plans to "lower interest rates" will be shelved for a while. It will be felt in our pockets too; food, transportation, everything. My expectation is that inflation expectations will rise a little more in the next 2-3 months, but if diplomacy comes into play, it will quickly improve. Otherwise, the wave of price increases in the summer will wear us down considerably.

As for Bitcoin… This is the most interesting part, in my opinion. In every crisis, people look for a "safe haven." Like gold, Bitcoin does the same thing according to some. When tensions increased, its price fluctuated considerably, but generally it went up. As far as I can see, those fleeing money in fear are turning to Bitcoin. Of course, the risk is high; if news of peace comes, it could fall instantly. Nevertheless, in the long term, I think this event will strengthen Bitcoin's value a little more, because after the events in Iran, everyone started saying "central bank money is risky." In short, in the short term, oil and inflation seem to be causing us problems, while Bitcoin might be an opportunity. But I'm not panicking; everything depends on diplomacy and how long it lasts. What do you think? Will this tension end or will it last longer? Let's discuss in the comments, maybe we can see it more clearly together.
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