📈 At the beginning of March, the P2P market started to show signs of "warming up" again after a volatile February. The USD exchange rate on free trading channels has risen, reflecting increasing defensive sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

Notably, the prolonged conflict tensions and concerns over global energy supply are key factors. The Strait of Hormuz – a shipping route that transports about 20% of the world's crude oil – if disrupted, could cause a major shock to the commodity markets. When supply tightens, oil prices could surge, and many experts are even forecasting a scenario where $100 per barrel is no longer far off.
Rising oil prices also put pressure on global inflation. Energy-importing economies, including Vietnam, will face dual impacts: higher input costs and increased exchange rate pressures. In this context, demand for holding USD often increases as a short-term safe haven, causing the P2P market to react quite sensitively.
If oil prices truly remain high for an extended period, the story of "1 USD = 30,000 VND" might no longer be just a joke. However, the exchange rate also depends on many factors such as the State Bank’s policy management, trade balance, and FDI flows.
At this stage, the key is not panic, but risk management:
• Avoid all-in positions on one side.
• Properly diversify assets among VND, USD, and other investment channels.
• Closely monitor oil fluctuations and geopolitical developments.
👉 Markets are always volatile, but for those who are well-prepared, volatility also presents opportunities. Are you ready for the new scenario in March? 😎