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When is the best time to bottom fish in the US stock market? What am I waiting for?
First, I want to share some data with you:
1. Passive funds account for 55% of US fund assets.
2. In the S&P 500, the seven giants have a combined weight of 34.3%.
3. The scale of financing to buy stocks has reached $1.226 trillion, a new all-time high.
4. Fund managers' cash positions are only 3.2%, nearly fully invested.
01, Passive funds account for 55% of US fund assets
In plain language: This means that market pricing power is shifting from active fund managers to passive index-tracking funds. When more than half of the funds are automatically buying according to rules, the heavyweight stocks in the index will receive continuous passive inflows, which could push up valuations and weaken the market’s self-correcting function.
02, In the S&P 500, the seven giants have a weight of 34.3%
In plain language: These seven companies now account for over one-third of the index. For index funds, they are essential holdings; but for the overall market, the index’s performance is increasingly not representative of the true condition of the 500 companies, but rather hostage to these few giants. If they experience a correction, the index will come under direct pressure.
03, The scale of financing to buy stocks reached $1.226 trillion, a new record high
In plain language: Leverage is a double-edged sword. This scale hitting a new high indicates that market sentiment is indeed very hot, and everyone is borrowing money to participate. But leverage also means vulnerability—once the market turns, these funds could accelerate the decline because forced liquidations can trigger chain reactions.
04, Fund managers’ cash positions are only 3.5%
In plain language: Based on historical experience, low cash positions usually mean that institutions have limited funds to deploy; they’ve probably bought most of what they wanted. If the market continues to rise, they may face pressure to chase higher; but if a correction occurs, they lack bullets to buy at lower levels, and might instead need to sell stocks to handle redemptions or maintain liquidity.
Currently, the market is in a relatively extreme state—funds are highly concentrated, leverage is at high levels, and institutions don’t have much cash left.
Under this structure, the market is more likely to experience high volatility, so I am waiting for a golden opportunity to bottom fish.
In addition, my planned daily small-scale S&P 500 dollar-cost averaging investments remain unchanged.