The Market Falls Into a Stagnant State - Investors Hold Steady Awaiting Fed's Decision

In recent days, the crypto market has been immersed in a dull atmosphere as capital continues to sell off during trading sessions. Both BTC and ETH have recorded declines, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid a series of mixed signals from macroeconomic data. To understand the depth of this situation, we need to look at the numbers behind it.

Imbalance on the Liquidation Map

Data from leading exchanges shows a very unbalanced situation. For BTC, the long liquidation stands at 75 while short liquidation reaches 138 (difference -63). Similarly, ETH also shows imbalance with long liquidations at 109 and short at 139 (difference -30).

More notably, overall, the short side currently dominates nearly twice as much as the long side when considering BTC and ETH alone. This is not a normal sign — it indicates the market is building a very strong defensive mindset, with forecasts suggesting prices will continue to decline or at least lack confidence in a near-term recovery.

When Liquidity Is Divided — Hidden Risks

Another important detail is the dispersion of liquidity across clearing levels. Instead of concentrating at a few key price points, the long-short liquidation blocks now appear scattered with medium to low volume. The gaps between these zones are widening.

When liquidity is fragmented like this, market makers have opportunities to exploit short-term volatility — pump and dump — to wipe out large liquidation clusters before the market finds a clear direction. This is when highly leveraged positions are most vulnerable to being “wiped out” if not careful.

Cumulative Delta Still Deep in the Negative Zone

BTC’s net flow (cumulative delta) remains around -5 billion, while ETH is similarly negative at about -4 billion. This indicates that active selling pressure still dominates, rather than a balanced market. This deepens the dull atmosphere the market is experiencing.

Mixed Signals from CPI and Fed Policies

In this context, the US CPI data has become a market anchor. The headline CPI dropped to 2.4% — below the expected 2.5% — suggesting inflationary pressures are easing. This is a positive sign for those hoping the Fed will loosen monetary policy.

However, beneath that figure lies a different picture. Core CPI remains at 2.5% (as forecasted), and notably, the monthly core CPI increased by 0.3% — higher than last month’s 0.2%. This shows that underlying inflation still has momentum, and is not yet over.

This “half-good — half-bad” scenario is causing investors to feel confused. They need more data to understand which direction the Fed will take — further rate cuts or holding steady to combat inflation.

When the Entire Dull Picture Converges

Overall, we see:

• Excessive short positioning
• Deep negative cumulative delta
• Dispersed liquidity creating conditions for sudden volatility
• Conflicting macroeconomic signals

Combining all these factors, the possibility of sudden movements — resetting market positions — is entirely plausible. The market has not yet confirmed a bottom, but it is no longer in a panic sell-off phase. This is the most sensitive zone.

Trading Tips During a Dull Phase

Those still active in the market should:

• Reduce leverage — this is not the time to go all-in
• Closely monitor capital flows — pay attention when cumulative delta starts to lessen its negativity
• Mark major liquidation zones — these will be the areas with the strongest volatility
• Wait for clear confirmation from the Fed — avoid rushing into big decisions

A dull market does not last forever — but as long as it persists, a defensive strategy remains the wisest choice.