Annual loss of $70 million, stock price soars 35%.

This is the market pre-emptively buying into a story that hasn't happened yet.
Circle announced Q4 earnings yesterday: USDC circulation $75.3 billion, up 72% year-over-year; quarterly revenue $770 million, up 77% year-over-year; EBITDA surged 412%, the data indeed looks impressive.
But looking at the full-year data, net loss is $70 million.
The reason is that during IPO, they issued $424 million worth of stock incentives, which wiped out all profits in one go.
The market chose to ignore this and directly pushed the stock price from $61 to $83.
Interestingly, Circle's profitability is actually quite simple: you convert your money into USDC, it uses that to buy U.S. Treasuries, collects all the interest, and you get nothing.
Q4 reserve income accounts for over 80% of total revenue.
So its core variable isn't the number of users or how strong the technology is, but the Federal Reserve's interest rate.
The higher the interest rate, the more Circle earns; when rates drop, the business model begins to loosen.
Now, with rate cut expectations repeatedly delayed, it has unexpectedly become a protective moat for Circle—somewhat ironic.
What the market is applauding today is that USDC is still capturing Tether's market share (USDT market share has been steadily declining from over 60%), and that Visa, Intuit, JPMorgan are all integrating USDC—an optimistic outlook after regulatory compliance.
But don’t forget: Circle itself predicts that by 2026, USDC growth will slow from 72% to 40%.
Growth is slowing down, interest rates are holding high, and regulatory bills are still stuck in the Senate.
This 35% increase is priced in a "if everything goes smoothly" future.
Whether it goes smoothly or not, perhaps we'll find out this year.