What is the impact of Zimbabwe suspending lithium ore exports? Several listed companies respond

On February 26, lithium carbonate futures main contracts surged over 11% at one point. At the same time, the A-share lithium mining sector opened higher. According to news, on February 25, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines announced that all exports of lithium ore and lithium concentrate are suspended immediately. This suspension includes all minerals currently in transit, with no clear timetable for resumption of exports.

Chinese securities reporters have learned that listed companies Shengxin Lithium Energy, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongkuang Resources, Tianhua New Energy, and Yahua Group all have lithium mining projects or related layouts in Zimbabwe.

As an emerging major lithium resource country, what impact does Zimbabwe’s “export ban” have on China’s lithium supply and price trends? Chinese securities reporters conducted multiple interviews.

Responses from listed companies

What impact does Zimbabwe’s new policy have on A-share listed companies with local operations?

On February 26, a person in charge of Zhongkuang Resources told Chinese securities reporters: “All lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe by China have been halted, awaiting further policy details. The company has plans for industry chain extension, but it is not convenient to disclose now.”

A relevant person from Huayou Cobalt stated that the “export ban” in Zimbabwe mainly targets regulatory oversight of illegal exports. The company’s mining license was issued by the local Ministry of Mines, and the specific impact is still uncertain.

A person from Yahua Group said, “The company has already shipped all lithium concentrate produced in Zimbabwe. Recently, the local ‘export suspension’ will not affect the company’s production.”

The person further explained, “According to the documents, traders and agents who have not obtained mining or beneficiation qualifications locally are no longer eligible for export. However, Yahua Group can continue to apply for export, only needing to supplement relevant documents in the export licensing process. The company has already started working on this.”

Impact on lithium price trends

“Based on Zimbabwe’s actual production in 2025, an annual export of 1.13 million tons of lithium concentrate, equivalent to 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), accounts for 7.5% of global lithium supply,” said Yu Jiayi, chief analyst of metals at Orient Securities. If the market reduces this supply, the impact on global lithium supply contraction will be significant. However, the “export ban” is expected to last no more than a month. For compliant export companies, it will only affect their shipment volume over a few weeks, not their orders.

Yu Jiayi noted that lithium carbonate is currently in a tight supply and demand situation in the first half of the year. The short-term supply disruptions will further amplify seasonal price elasticity. But it is hard to say whether this variable will directly change the overall supply-demand pattern; supply is expected to gradually increase in the second half of the year.

Looking at the full year, lithium carbonate may see a pattern of “volatile rise in the first half, followed by a slight decline after increased supply in the second half,” with prices likely remaining between 100,000 and 250,000 yuan per ton.

Zheng Xiaoqiang, lithium industry analyst at Shanghai Steel Union New Energy Division, said that if Zimbabwe’s “export ban” is not lifted or continues to be delayed, starting from May, China’s lithium carbonate market will enter a phase of continuous destocking, likely driving spot prices of lithium ore and salts to rise rapidly.

Shanghai Steel Union data shows that on February 26, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 173,000 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 8,650 yuan per ton.

Regarding whether this will affect companies’ strategic adjustments, Yu Jiayi said, “It depends on each company’s degree of local integration. Companies that have already laid out in Zimbabwe will have to passively accept the situation in the short term, and may even further develop downstream. However, as long as lithium carbonate prices stay above 100,000 yuan per ton, even deep processing locally remains profitable.”