‍#TrumpAnnouncesNewTariffs "Oil tests monthly highs" Let's predict how the price may behave. Brent and WTI oil are indeed showing upward dynamics, approaching local peaks. The situation in the energy market is currently quite tense due to a combination of geopolitics and fundamental economic factors. Here are the main drivers of growth: 1. Escalation in the Middle East remains the main factor. Any threats to shipping in the Red Sea or direct risks to the infrastructure of large producers automatically add to the price. 2. The alliance continues to limit production. Recent statements about the continuation of voluntary cuts create a supply shortage in the market. 3. The Chinese factor: Despite the general slowdown in the PRC economy, the latest incentives from the Chinese government give hope for an increase in industrial oil consumption. 4. Decrease in inventories in the US: Data from API and EIA often show a faster-than-expected rate of decline in commercial oil inventories, which indicates high domestic demand. Upside scenario: If oil consolidates above key resistance levels (e.g.

for Brent), the path to 90-92 per barrel will open - provided that military conflicts further escalate or the US Fed suddenly lowers interest rates (which will weaken the dollar and make oil cheaper for holders of other currencies). Downside scenario: provided that geopolitical tensions subside a bit, the price may roll back to the 78-82 range. Or if there are high interest rates in the world for a longer period than expected (which slows down the economy), and production growth in countries outside OPEC+ (USA, Guyana, Brazil).