The entire world has entered a high-risk, highly volatile phase, with three main themes unfolding simultaneously:

1. The Middle East is the most tense: the U.S. has issued a 10-day final deadline for Iran’s nuclear negotiations, with a fleet of twin aircraft carriers and stealth fighters converging; Iran is on full alert, deploying anti-ship missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any attack will result in a blockade of 30% of global oil routes. Russia and Iran are conducting joint military exercises to deter threats, causing oil and gold prices (breaking $5,000) to soar, with risk aversion at an all-time high.

2. Stalemate and exhaustion in Russia-Ukraine conflict: the front lines are static, both sides are bombing energy facilities; Ukraine has targeted Russian refineries, reducing processing capacity by 19%; Russia has shot down 323 Ukrainian drones in a single day. The EU has intensified sanctions, Russia has responded with countermeasures, further pressuring European energy supplies and inflation.

3. Europe’s security tightening: Poland has withdrawn from the Ottawa Treaty banning landmines, Eastern Europe is ramping up military preparations; NATO’s eastern flank is conducting intensive military exercises, reshaping the security landscape.

Global multipolarization is accelerating, with conflicts and negotiations coexisting. Energy and financial markets continue to fluctuate, and the next 10 days in the Middle East will be the biggest variable.
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