When panic approaches extreme levels, the market is often not far from a turning point.

During each major Bitcoin decline, market sentiment tends to follow a similar pattern: first, the stubborn bottom-fishers, then hesitant observers, and finally collective silence. When the decline approaches historical extreme zones, it essentially means that most short-term positions have been wiped out; those willing to cut losses have mostly done so, while those unwilling to sell become more resolute. From a behavioral finance perspective, extreme declines are often associated with extreme emotions, and emotions themselves tend to revert to the mean.

Looking back at history, multiple deep retracements have been accompanied by an environment of "hopelessness": negative news is amplified infinitely, while positive news is selectively ignored. But market bottoms are never created by positive news piling up; they are forged through exhaustion of selling pressure. When trading volume gradually shrinks at low levels, it indicates that the force of active selling is waning. Such phases are more about building a bottom than a collapse.

Strategically, the most common mistakes for ordinary investors at this point are: either panicking and clearing out at low levels, or going all-in to buy the dip. A more rational approach is to participate in stages, at a slow pace, spreading out timing risks over time. True opportunities often go to those who can maintain patience.

Extreme levels do not mean an immediate reversal, but they often signal that the risk-reward ratio is beginning to improve. The market may still fluctuate, but the structural space has changed dramatically from the high levels. #比特币跌幅逼近历史极值