🔥 Where is crypto headed?

In crypto, at least with BTC, each cycle is the same. BTC can recover. If that happens, it will be very good for market sentiment. However, at the current moment, new highs are more likely just lower peaks within the macro trend. Trying to time these rebounds is very difficult, with mixed results—sometimes successful, sometimes leading to “account blowouts.”

When BTC drops below the SMA50, the price usually continues down to the SMA100, consolidates there for a while, then moves down to the SMA200. Every cycle ends up like this. BTC peaks right around the familiar (Q4 of the year after the halving), and many people spend hours trying to convince you that this time is different—that it hasn’t peaked yet.

Then BTC enters a downtrend, and many cling to the belief that “altcoin season is coming,” because after BTC peaks, an alt season typically follows. What many don’t consider is the level of market interest. After the 2019 peak, there was no rotation into altcoins, and that happened just before the quantitative tightening (QT) phase ended.

Interest in this asset group has been declining since 2021, leading to no new participants buying back the altcoins people want to sell. Historically, altcoin seasons only occur after a year of steadily increasing interest in crypto, not after five years of decline.

If you want to survive in this market, have a real plan. Because if the altcoins you hold continue to drop by another 50%–80% from this stage, no influencer or KOL who promoted them will show remorse, and only the buyers will have to live with the consequences.

Such opinions often face criticism for telling the truth, but a hard truth is better than a lie.

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