Market Analysis 2026.02.10

Yesterday, I discussed BTC's macro trend, and the current view remains unchanged. Now, let's talk about the micro level, which is the recent market behavior.

The chart shows the BTC 1-hour candlestick chart. The entire black arrow segment is considered the first wave of a rebound from the oversold condition starting at $60,000. The pullback from 722 is a correction of this upward move from $60,000 to 722. After identifying the correction's end point, there is still some upward potential.

Last night, after dropping to 683, the price stopped falling, so the community was notified to go long and close short positions. This morning, seeing that the upward momentum was weak, I decided to treat it as a short-term trade.

Currently, BTC is likely preparing for a range-bound movement. There are two possible scenarios:

Red Path: Testing the 677-675 level without breaking below it, narrowing the trading range. Then, around Gann time 2.15, the correction will end, and an upward breakout will occur, initiating the second wave of gains. After completing the rebound from $60,000, BTC will continue to decline.

Blue Path: BTC may break below the 677-675 level in the next few days. If that happens, the correction could be deeper, with 645 as a possible end point. The strength of the subsequent upward move would also be limited.

Currently, BTC appears to be following the red path. Until the range is broken or breached this week, my short-term trading strategy will focus on low buy and high sell swings. I will consider increasing positions only when signs of the correction ending become clear.