February 10, 2026 12:00 (Beijing Time), BTC approximately $67,100 USD, 24h +1.9%, weekly -8.1%, oscillating at low levels with insufficient volume, the bearish pattern remains unchanged. The strategy focuses on light positions + stop-loss + range trading.

1. Core Technical Analysis (Preliminary Conclusion)

- Pattern: Long upper shadow on daily chart, rebound then retreat; 1h/4h charts show narrow oscillation between 67,000-69,000, Bollinger middle band acting as resistance, rebound lacks strength.
- Indicators: RSI≈48 (neutral leaning weak); MACD shows a low-level golden cross but short red bars (insufficient momentum); moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, price below MA5/MA10.
- Volume: No significant volume on rebound, spot selling pressure eases but buying has not followed through, mainly driven by futures, difficult to sustain.

2. Key Price Levels (USD)

- Support: 65,000 (major support and resistance, a break indicates a second bottom); 63,000-62,800 (strong support, small long positions can be tested).
- Resistance: 69,800-70,200 (intraday strong resistance); 72,000-75,000 (concentrated trapped positions, 4h sell zones).

3. Executable Trading Strategies (Scenario-based)

- Rebound Short (Priority)
1. Entry: Short in batches on rebound to 69,800-70,200, single position ≤10%.
2. Target: 68,500-67,500, stop-loss at 71,000 (break indicates trend reversal).
- Pullback Long (Cautious)
1. Entry: Light long positions on pullback to 65,000, single position ≤10%.
2. Target: 67,000-68,000, stop-loss at 64,500 (break suggests switching to short).
3. Breakdown: If below 65,000, observe or go short, targeting 63,000-62,800, stop-loss at 65,500.
- Position and Risk Management
- Total position ≤30%, single position ≤10%, avoid chasing high leverage, strictly control risk during deleveraging phase.
- Preferably avoid high leverage contracts, mainly trade spot within ranges.

4. Risks and Drivers

- Risks: Diminished expectations of March rate cuts, ETF capital outflows, deleveraging of futures positions, weak rebound sustainability; large sell-offs or macro disturbances can trigger rapid declines.
- Drivers: Weak geopolitical safe-haven support, short-term oscillation and correction dominate, unlikely to see strong unilateral moves.