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Developments in the Last 72 Hours
February 6 Muscat Talks: The US side included figures such as Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Iran was represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The Iranian side described the talks as a "good start" and stated that it was "a long way to go in building trust." US President Donald Trump described the talks as "very good" and announced that a new round would be held next week. Iran's Red Lines:
The talks will be limited to the nuclear issue only.
Reducing uranium enrichment to zero is absolutely unacceptable — "Enrichment is Iran's right" (Araghchi, February 8).
The ballistic missile program and regional allies (Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) are absolutely out of the question.
The US military buildup in the region is seen as a "provocation."
US Demands:
Zero uranium enrichment.
Severely limiting the range of ballistic missiles.
Completely cutting off support to proxy forces in the region. Addressing human rights violations and the suppression of protests.
Although Iran signaled flexibility regarding the dilution of highly enriched uranium (February 9th statements), this offer has not yet been deemed sufficient by the US.
Elements of Turmoil
While the Iranian side conveyed the message that "the US is not serious, they will not be able to intimidate us," it was simultaneously reported that Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missiles were being deployed and tested in underground facilities.
The US warned its citizens to "leave Iran immediately" before the talks and continues to keep the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group in the Gulf.
Iranian domestic politics are also tense: Repression continues, with thousands of protesters killed, and the regime is hardening its stance.
The Israeli factor: Netanyahu will discuss the Iran issue with Trump at the White House on February 11th. Israel considers the talks a "time-gaining tactic" and demands a comprehensive agreement.
General Assessment
The current situation is proceeding on a fine line between diplomacy and military tension. Both sides say "let's keep talking," but there are no concrete concessions. The Iranian regime appears to be trying to buy time, while the Trump administration is pursuing a "maximalist" deal and keeping the military option on the table in case of failure. In short: Although the talks are presented as a "good start," the hashtag #USIranNuclearTalksTurmoil is trending precisely because of this: A real deal is not in sight; stalemate and tension prevail. What the next round (likely this week) brings is critically important.