#当前行情抄底还是观望？ TRON Senior Researcher Wilkie stated that the conflict between the United States and Iran shows signs of erupting at any moment. Geopolitical uncertainties are prompting investors to shift towards more stable assets, with Bitcoin becoming a sell-off asset due to its high volatility. Based on the performance of Bitcoin spot ETFs, continuous institutional selling has caused a spiral decline in the market. The ongoing sell-off by institutions, coupled with insufficient liquidity from buying funds, has led the market to predominantly trend downward. Recently, Bitcoin’s leverage ratio has remained high at 5.8%, above the 5-year average of 4.88%.

Wilkie believes that without any positive news, the cryptocurrency market will mainly decline in the near term. If Bitcoin breaks the psychological level of $60,000, it will further test the $50,000 level. Other altcoins have already fallen 80% to 90%, so further declines are limited, but there is also a lack of upward momentum.
Since 2025, the narrative in the crypto market has become limited, indicating bottlenecks in technological breakthroughs and applications. Currently, the market narrative for 2026 centers around the integration of AI and blockchain platforms. If some strong projects and products emerge, they could trigger another wave of development for public chains and other infrastructure platforms.

The current market’s emotional, stampede-like decline actually creates a window for rational investors to reassess their positions. As market panic gradually subsides and the market structure stabilizes, investors can consider gradually deploying assets in phases, seizing high-quality allocation opportunities without fundamentally shaking the core long-term logic.