After Major AI Investments: Will Amazon, Google, and Meta deplete their cash reserves?
Following large-scale AI investments, are Amazon, Google, and Meta about to run out of cash flow?
Will these tech giants—Amazon, Google, and Meta—exhaust their cash reserves after making significant AI investments?
Are Amazon, Google, and Meta on the verge of depleting their cash flow following their substantial AI funding?

As the arms race for AI infrastructure enters the “deep water” phase, a troubling turning point has emerged for investors: to support AI computing demands, Amazon, Google, and Meta are facing the risk of free cash flow being depleted or even overdrafted.

According to a research report released by J.P. Morgan on February 5, 2026, the four major U.S. cloud giants—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—are expected to have a total capital expenditure of $645 billion in 2026, a 56% year-over-year increase, with new spending reaching an astonishing $230 billion.

For investors, 2026 may be the year to closely watch the balance sheets of tech giants.

Google’s 97% Growth vs. Amazon’s “Cash Deficit”

In this infrastructure frenzy, Google’s investments are very aggressive.

In 2026, Google’s capital expenditure guidance has been raised to $175 billion to $185 billion, a 97% increase year-over-year, with funds pouring madly into servers and technological infrastructure.

If Google is still just “spending wildly,” then Amazon is arguably “overdrawing its future.”

In 2026, Amazon’s capital expenditure guidance is about $200 billion (a 52% increase). But the core issue is that Amazon’s cash earnings can no longer cover its expenditures—according to S&P Global market analysts, Amazon’s operating cash flow (OCF) in 2026 is estimated at about $178 billion.

This means Amazon’s capital expenditures will exceed its operating cash flow, leading to a substantial net cash outflow (Burn Cash). Additionally, according to The Information, Amazon is also in talks to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into OpenAI, which will further deplete its cash reserves.

Meta’s situation is equally concerning. Its 2026 capital expenditure is expected to grow by 75% to between $115 billion and $135 billion. While not directly “overdrawing,” this massive spending will almost “wipe out” Meta’s free cash flow, turning its previously flexible financial position into a tight squeeze.

Shareholder returns are under pressure, and Microsoft may be an “exception”

When the cash flow reservoir dries up, shareholder return plans face adjustment pressures.

In recent years, tech giants have strongly supported their stock prices through large-scale share buybacks. But in 2026, this engine may stall:

• Buyback reduction: Last year, Meta spent $26 billion on stock buybacks, but with free cash flow expected to shrink significantly this year, buyback efforts are likely to be forced to cut back.

• Dividend pressure: Google and Meta paid about $10 billion and $5 billion in dividends last fiscal year, respectively. They should still be able to afford these dividends this year, but it will further squeeze already tight cash flows.

Amazon will not face the same problem, as it has not conducted share buybacks since 2022 and has never paid dividends. Facing a cash deficit in 2026, the likelihood of restarting buybacks is very slim.

Faced with a funding gap, giants are beginning to leverage their balance sheet flexibility:

• Google: Despite surging expenditures, Google remains in a “zero net debt” position (cash of $127 billion > debt of $47 billion). S&P ratings indicate that even adding $200 billion in net debt would not trigger a downgrade of its AA+ credit rating.

• Amazon: Despite cash flow deficits, Amazon still held $123 billion in cash as of the end of last year, and issued $15 billion in bonds last November. Recently, it has submitted registration statements to the SEC, preparing for further large-scale debt issuance.

Amid the “money-burning” trend, Microsoft demonstrates unique financial resilience.

Although Microsoft’s capital expenditure in fiscal year 2026 (ending June) is also expected to exceed $103 billion (an increase of over 60%), analysts forecast it can still generate about $66 billion in free cash flow, enough to cover its massive spending.

However, even if Microsoft is likely to generate substantial free cash flow, it faces a constraint that other companies do not—higher dividend payout commitments. Last fiscal year, Microsoft paid $24 billion in dividends, and this year, it has already increased dividends by 10%.

Conclusion: Beware the “Oracle Trap”

For investors, 2026 will be a year to closely monitor balance sheets.

Oracle provides a dangerous warning—its net debt has soared to $88 billion, more than twice its EBITDA. This over-leverage on its balance sheet has already penalized the market, with its stock price down 27% this year.

Now, the $645 billion bill is on the table.

As Silicon Valley giants attempt to use today’s cash flows, or even future debt, to buy a ticket into the AI era, if this high-stakes gamble cannot translate into tangible revenue growth in the future, the cash flow crisis of 2026 may just be the prelude to a valuation restructuring.