[Red Envelope] During the tide retreat, the three flowers gather against the trend. Big data suggests that it's most likely a Red Envelope week.

In-depth Review Beforehand, Regular Weekly Observation Recap:

2.2 Monday:
Focus underwater on Magmet;
Intraday focus on Zhitex New Materials;
Rolling observation on Huatian Technology and Jiuding New Materials;

2.3 Tuesday:
Focus on bidding for Quxing Toys;
Rolling observation on Zhitex New Materials;
Unfollow Huatian Technology and Jiuding New Materials at high levels;

2.4 Wednesday:
Follow Zhitex New Materials at low levels from Tuesday, rolling observation ongoing;
Focus on Xinhua Department Store intraday;
Rolling observation on Quxing Toys;

2.5 Thursday:
Urgent sell-off focus on GCL System Integration, ceiling;
Afternoon break of intraday, unfollowed Monday’s low-level observation, and long-term rolling Zhitex New Materials, the first to retreat;
Pulling up to unfollow Quxing Toys;
Focus on Sanyuan Technology at low levels;

2.6 Friday:
Deep water again on GCL System Integration, two consecutive ceilings;
Deep water on Sanyuan Technology last Thursday, ceiling;
Last week’s geopolitical conflict focus on Intercontinental Oil & Gas, ceiling;
Unfollow Xinhua Department Store;
Three flowers gather at the top!

Outside, the cold wind cuts to the bone,
Inside, the stove fire still burns brightly,
The wine is still warm!

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Deep Dive: Market Sentiment Review
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February 6, 2026 (Friday)

Based on data from the past ten years before holidays, there is a 70% probability that the market rises in the week before the holiday;

First, the conclusion:

The market is in the “extreme volume contraction game” stage, with sentiment showing an extreme coexistence of “core group hugging” and “first board slaughter.” High-level consecutive limit-up stocks have gaps, but yesterday’s limit-up stocks on average gained 4.48% today, indicating funds have locked in core assets in the knockout stage. The absolute ceiling of Mingdiao Shares is the strongest signal of sentiment repair today, establishing the game logic of “extreme trend reversal.” Under the pre-holiday effect, funds seek certainty in the high valuation chemical cycle and M&A restructuring.

1. Key Data and Sentiment Diagnosis
1.1 Overall Market Performance
Index performance: Volatile adjustment, individual stocks mixed gains and losses.
Volume change: 21457 billion, shrinking by 305 billion, liquidity converging before the holiday.
Number of rising and falling stocks: 2574 up, 2444 down.
Limit-up and limit-down stocks: 55 non-ST limit-ups, 5 limit-downs.

1.2 Short-term Sentiment Indicators
Consecutive limit-up upgrade rate:
One to two: 4 stocks, upgrade rate 12% (very low, no interest in new themes).
Two to three: 3 stocks, upgrade rate 43% (moderate, high recognition by funds).
Three boards or more: 3 to 4 upgrade, 1 stock, upgrade rate 33%; 4 to 5 gap.
Market temperature: Warm (core stocks hot, non-core stocks cold).
Breakthrough rate of limit-up to break the board: 32.1% (weak willingness to seal).
Yesterday’s limit-up stocks today: average gain 0.31% (no premium next day, serious profit-taking).
Yesterday’s consecutive limit-up stocks today: average gain 4.48% (core group hugging, the strong stay strong).

1.3 Sentiment Summary
The market has entered a mode of “light new themes, heavy old core.”
Funds are reluctant to try new directions before the holiday, turning instead to repair existing high standards (like Mingdiao Shares) or explore low-level cyclical stocks (chemical industry).

2. Deep Analysis of Consecutive Limit-up Tiers
2.1 Current Limit-up Structure
4 boards: Han Jian Heshan (acquisition);
3 boards: GCL System Integration (photovoltaic), Kailong High-tech (robotics), Hangzhou Jiebai (retail).
2 boards: Huangting International, Shenjian Shares, Jinfu Technology, Tianzhong Precision.

2.2 Tier Characteristics Analysis
High suppression: Multiple days’ highest limit-up stay at 4 boards, indicating strong market fear of high and mid-high positions before the holiday.
Attribute hugging: Limit-up stocks mainly revolve around “M&A restructuring” (Han Jian Heshan, Kailong High-tech) and “equity transfer/reversal” (Mingdiao Shares).
Extreme reversal: Mingdiao Shares’ “earth ceiling” on Thursday, and “earth and sky ceiling” today, such extreme K-line combinations suggest a decisive battle between bulls and bears, with bulls ultimately winning, boosting confidence in high-level stocks.

2.3 Follow-up Focus Points

Can Han Jian Heshan weaken and turn strong to upgrade to 5 boards, breaking the high suppression?
Monitor the sustainability of Mingdiao Shares’ reversal; if it continues to strengthen, it will establish the short-term effectiveness of the “reversal dragon” strategy.
Beware of accelerated淘汰 under volume contraction, especially for stocks without logical support that follow the trend.

Risk warning: The first board upgrade rate is only 12%, meaning blindly hitting the first limit-up is a major source of losses. Do not blindly try to catch the trend.

3. Hot Sectors and Core Stock Comments

3.1 Chemical/Cyclical Sector (Defensive + Price Increase)
Number of limit-ups: 9 (including petrochemical)
3.1.1 Policy-driven
BASF and other giants’ price increase letters have landed, dispersing dye intermediate prices soaring, combined with annual report performance growth expectations.

3.1.2 Core Stock Analysis
Intercontinental Oil & Gas (7 limit-ups in 13 days): The absolute central army of the oil and gas sector, with independent trend, influenced by geopolitical and oil price fluctuations, a safe haven choice for funds.
Baichuan Shares (5 limit-ups in 8 days): Dual attributes of lithium battery + chemical industry, with a fierce trend but already at high levels.

3.1.3 Operation Strategy
Perspective: Focus on the main trend of the central army, with liquidity support.
Rotation path: The chemical price increase wave may spread to non-ferrous metals, steel, and other cyclical sectors.

3.2 Robotics/AI Hardware (Persistent Hotspot)
Number of limit-ups: 6 (mainly first boards) + Kailong High-tech (3 boards)
3.2.1 Core Stock Analysis
Kailong High-tech: Hotspots of “embodied intelligence + acquisition,” with institutional and retail combined buying on the龙虎榜, leading the sector.
GCL System Integration: Stimulated by Musk’s research, combined with photovoltaic attributes, with 3 consecutive limit-ups, showing good momentum.

3.2.2 Sector Characteristics
Early surge in the morning, retreating with the market in the afternoon, internal rotation very fast, mainly hardware (robots) and software (AI applications) lagging today.

3.2.3 Operation Strategy
Non-emotional traders are advised not to chase high; focus on core mid-level opportunities for low absorption, rather than chasing high consecutive limit-up small stocks.

3.3 Commercial Aerospace/Reversal (Sentiment Game)
Number of limit-ups: 2
Core logic: Sentiment repair, funds hunting for oversold rebounds.
3.3.1 Core Stocks
Mingdiao Shares: Today’s absolute protagonist, repairing sentiment with earth and sky ceiling.
Tianzhong Precision: 20 consecutive limit-ups, recovering from yesterday’s panic sell-off, forming an independent trend.

3.3.2 Operation Advice
These stocks have high speculative components, suitable for aggressive traders, requiring quick in and out, and immediate exit if expectations are not met.

4. Overall Market Sentiment Analysis
4.1 Sentiment Cycle Positioning
The current market is in a “post-tide chaos recovery” phase.
Risk point: Yesterday’s limit-up only 0.31% premium today, indicating most follow-up stocks are being hit with the kill button or opening low and drifting lower, with very low tolerance for errors.
Opportunity point: Core high standards (like yesterday’s limit-up stocks today gaining 4.48%) and reversal stocks (Mingdiao Shares) have excess returns.

4.2 Fund Behavior Characteristics
“20/80 split”: Funds are extremely focused, only on core stocks, with other stocks ignored.
“High-low switching”: When high-level stocks diverge, funds flow into low-level cyclical stocks like chemicals and lithium batteries for risk hedging.
“Institutional reflow”: Institutional heavy holdings like Enjie Shares are bought in large amounts, indicating long-term funds are pre-holiday rushing to buy oversold stocks.

4.3 Sentiment Indicator Interpretation
A first board upgrade rate below 15% is a typical “chaos battle” signal, indicating the market does not recognize new themes, and funds are playing in old stocks.
“Yesterday’s limit-up” index surges against the trend, showing existing funds are hugging and locking positions strongly.

5. Future Outlook and Trading Strategies
5.1 Major Direction Judgment
Early next week, the market is likely to continue shrinking volume and oscillate, with funds rotating between “defensive cyclical stocks” and “high-level core stocks,” making broad rally unlikely.

5.2 Specific Trading Strategies
5.2.1 Avoidance Directions
High-level follow-up stocks: No logical support, purely concept-based limit-up stocks, very easy to be smashed.
AI application sector: Led down today, with strong profit-taking willingness.
Baijiu/Tourism: Pre-holiday profit-taking stocks, short-term lack of rebound momentum.

5.2.2 Focused Directions
M&A restructuring/equity transfer: Han Jian Heshan, Kailong High-tech, the current strongest hidden logic.
Cyclical sectors (chemical, non-ferrous metals): Defensive allocation with high cost-effectiveness.
Core reversal stocks: Watch Mingdiao Shares for continued strength, which could drive a reversal repair wave.

5.2.3 Risk Control
Operate with light positions, within 50%.
Avoid chasing high, especially stocks that surged early in the morning, as they are prone to profit-taking in the afternoon.
Prioritize stocks with institutional participation and solid fundamentals, rather than small caps driven purely by chips.

6. Summary
Today’s market is a contest between “core assets” and “sentiment game.” Under the shrinking volume environment before the holiday, funds have chosen the safest “hugging core” and “defensive cycle.”

Tomorrow’s core strategy: Focus on whether Han Jian Heshan can weaken and turn strong to break through 5 boards, and the sustainability of Mingdiao Shares.

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Riding the waves in the Great A!

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【Important Notice】: The above is for idea sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, invest cautiously!