Next week's major events: US Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI releases, China's inflation, and the Spring Festival showdown in AI and robotics

Week of February 9 - February 15 Major Financial Events Overview, all times Beijing Time:

Next week’s core themes are as follows:

Macroeconomic data focus on US and China inflation. Due to the US government’s brief shutdown, non-farm payroll data is delayed until Wednesday, February 11, released alongside CPI. A combination of “weak employment + strong inflation” would pose the greatest market risk; domestic January social financing and inflation data will also be released, with the market eager to verify the strength of the economic “good start.”

Next is the “Spring Festival offensive” in the tech industry. The Spring Festival has become a key battleground for AI application promotion, with giants like Alibaba and ByteDance launching billion-level subsidy campaigns. New models like DeepSeek and Grok are gearing up; in capital markets, AppLovin, Unity, and other software companies will test whether their recent sharp declines due to “AI disrupting software” are justified. Earnings reports from SMIC, NetEase, and Applied Materials will guide the direction of the semiconductor and internet sectors; simultaneously, several hard-tech companies like XianDao Intelligent and AiXin YuanZhi are planning IPOs in Hong Kong.

Third is the new geopolitical landscape. Trump confirms new negotiations with Iran, and the US military has convened a rare meeting of 34 countries’ senior officials, increasing geopolitical complexity. Attention should be paid to oil prices and safe-haven assets’ reactions.

Finally, precious metals markets are volatile. Next week, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and others will adjust margin requirements for gold, silver, copper, and other futures contracts.


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Economic Indicators

  • China’s Financial and Inflation Data

China will release January financial and inflation data. Caitong Securities expects CPI to slightly decline by 0.4% YoY, PPI to fall by 1.5% YoY; Zheshang Securities predicts CPI to increase by 0.6% YoY, PPI to decrease by 1.8% YoY.

Regarding financial data, the “good start” depends on the quality of the “opening red,” with Caitong Securities estimating January new social financing at 7.38 trillion yuan; Zheshang Securities is more conservative, projecting 6.9 trillion yuan.

  • US Non-Farm Payroll and Inflation Data to be Released Simultaneously

Due to the recent US government shutdown, non-farm payroll data is delayed until February 11. Next week will see a rare overlap of US non-farm employment report and CPI releases.

Market expectations for January non-farm job growth are centered around 60,000–80,000. Falling below this range could ignite discussions on rate cuts. CPI data will also need to consider early-year seasonal price pressures. A “weak employment + strong inflation” combo would pose the greatest market risk.

Financial Events

  • Iran Situation: Trump Confirms New Negotiations with Iran (All-week Event)

Markets will focus on the US and Iran’s planned new round of talks. According to CCTV News, President Trump has publicly confirmed negotiations next week.

However, expectations for breakthroughs are low due to fundamental disagreements: the US demands a comprehensive deal covering nuclear, missile, and regional activities, while Iran insists talks focus solely on nuclear issues and sanctions relief.

  • AI and Robotics Battle Intensifies: Qianwen, Doubao, Yuanbao, Wenxin Launch Red Envelopes, Free Orders, and More (All-week Event)

In February, the global AI field will see a series of key developments. China’s Spring Festival period is a critical window for AI application promotion.

From February 1 to 17, Yuanbao will run a 1 billion RMB cash activity. Baidu Wenxin has been offering 500 million RMB in red envelopes since January 26 through March 12. On February 6, Alibaba’s Qianwen app announced a 3 billion RMB investment in the Spring Festival campaign, and on February 7, free order cards’ validity was extended to February 28, fully integrating with Hema, Taobao Flash Sale, and other ecosystems.

Additionally, Yushu Technology announced on January 26 that it became the “2026 Spring Festival Gala Robot Partner” for CCTV, marking its third appearance on the CCTV Spring Festival Gala.

Image source: The Paper

Meanwhile, several Chinese companies plan to release new models: DeepSeek is expected to launch its powerful V4 programming model in February; ByteDance and Alibaba also plan to release Doubao 2.0 and Tongyi Qianwen 3.5 models respectively around the Spring Festival.

Overseas, February will also see multiple product updates and commercialization initiatives. Elon Musk’s xAI plans a major upgrade to its large language model Grok. OpenAI is reportedly launching chatbot advertising services this month. Apple plans to release a more personalized Siri powered by Google Gemini. In early February, Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, an AI tool that can directly operate computers to complete software tasks, which temporarily caused some traditional SaaS stocks to decline.

  • Munich Security Conference to be held February 13–15, EU Defense Ministers Meet in Brussels

The Munich Security Conference will take place from February 13 to 15, focusing on NATO’s future and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Next week, EU defense ministers will meet in Brussels to exchange views on supporting Ukraine.

  • Report: US Joint Chiefs Chairman to Hold “Rare” Meeting, 34 Countries’ Military Leaders Summoned

According to Global Times citing US media, amid ongoing US operations against so-called “drug trafficking ships,” Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, is convening a “rare” meeting of senior military officials from 34 countries in the Western Hemisphere. ABC reports that, based on a statement from the US Joint Chiefs, the meeting is scheduled for February 11, with defense ministers and senior military representatives from 34 countries attending to enhance consensus on shared security priorities and deepen regional cooperation.

  • Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: Margin Adjustments for Gold, Silver, Copper, and Other Futures

Shanghai Futures Exchange: Effective from the close on February 9, margin requirements and price limits for listed contracts are adjusted as follows: the price limit for international copper futures is set at 10%, with position-maintaining margin at 11%, and general position margin at 12%.

Shanghai Gold Exchange: From the close on February 9, the price limits for gold futures are adjusted to 17%, with position-maintaining margin at 18%, and general position margin at 19%. Silver futures’ limits are adjusted to 20%, with position-maintaining margin at 21%, and general position margin at 22%.

Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: Announced that from the close on February 9, margin standards for methanol, para-xylene, PTA, short fiber, and bottle chip futures are set at 10%, with a 9% price limit.

Shanghai Gold Exchange: From the close on February 9, margin ratios for contracts like Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, NYAuTN12 are increased from 17% to 18%.

Additionally, on February 13, the Chinese Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange will have no night trading on the eve of the Lunar New Year.

  • Tesla to End One-Time Payment Mode for FSD

Elon Musk announced that Tesla will cease the “one-time payment” mode for FSD after February 14. Currently, Tesla offers FSD in the US via an $8,000 one-time payment or a $99 monthly subscription. By the end of 2025, about 12% of Tesla vehicles are subscribed to FSD.

  • Amazon Leo Satellite Launch

Amazon’s low Earth orbit satellite will be launched on February 12 by Arianespace. The satellite communication network, formerly called “Project Kuiper,” has been renamed Amazon Leo. It has deployed 180 satellites so far, with plans for over 3,000. The constellation aims to provide network services to the US, Canada, France, Germany, and the UK by Q1 2026, covering user, enterprise, and government connectivity needs.

  • Speeches by Cleveland Fed President Mester, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and ECB President Lagarde on EU Economy

Next week, FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak on “Banking and Economic Outlook.” Atlanta Fed President Bostic, a 2027 FOMC voter, will discuss monetary policy and economic prospects. Dallas Fed President Logan will also speak. ECB President Christine Lagarde will participate in a discussion on the EU economy and ECB activities.

Earnings Reports and Hong Kong IPOs

  • SMIC, NetEase, Applovin, Applied Materials, Coreweave

Earnings season continues, with focus on the volatile AI application and software sectors and key tech companies.

Software giants like Unity, AppLovin, S&P Global, Robinhood will verify whether their recent sharp declines are justified. Meanwhile, industry chain companies like Cisco and Applied Materials, which supply AI giants, will update on AI demand. OpenAI’s industry chain companies like Coreweave are also under close watch.

Additionally, fast-food giants McDonald’s and Coca-Cola will report earnings. Coinbase will release its latest results. Mining giant Vale will report Q4 production on January 27 and earnings on February 12.

In Chinese concept stocks, NetEase’s gaming revenue and SMIC’s semiconductor recovery guidance are highly anticipated.

  • AiXin YuanZhi Semiconductor Hong Kong IPO, expected to list on February 10

Chip manufacturer AiXin YuanZhi Semiconductor announced it is seeking to raise HKD 2.96 billion via Hong Kong IPO, with a planned listing on February 10. The IPO is arranged by CICC, Guotai Junan, and Bank of Communications, and has begun accepting retail and institutional subscriptions.

  • Lianhe Technology to IPO in Hong Kong, expected to start trading on February 9

Chinese chip design company Lianhe Technology is planning an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise up to HKD 7 billion (about USD 902 million). Backed by cornerstone investors including Alibaba and J.P. Morgan with USD 450 million, its strong projected net profit growth of up to 66% in 2025 highlights high market confidence in its AI and data center chip growth potential. The stock is expected to start trading on February 9.

  • XianDao Intelligent Hong Kong IPO, expected to trade on February 11

XianDao Intelligent has applied for a Hong Kong IPO, seeking to issue 96.3 million shares at an indicative price up to HKD 45.80. It is expected to price on February 9 and start trading on February 11.

Energy Reports, Industry Conferences, and Other Events

  • 2026 Hong Kong Consensus Conference

The 2026 Hong Kong Consensus Conference (Consensus Hong Kong 2026) will be held from February 10 to 12 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre (HKCEC).

  • New York Fashion Week begins

NY Fashion Week starts, running until February 16.

  • International Energy Week in London, February 10–12

International Energy Week will be held in London from February 10 to 12, gathering global leaders to address key issues in energy transition. Oslo Energy Forum will be held concurrently.

  • Africa Mining Investment Conference

Africa’s largest mining investment event, the Africa Mining Investment Conference, will take place in Cape Town until February 12.

  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

OPEC will release its monthly oil market report (date to be announced, typically around 18:00–21:00 Beijing time).

  • 2026 Palm Oil and Lauric Oil Price Outlook Conference

The Palm Oil and Lauric Oil Price Outlook Conference will be held in Kuala Lumpur until February 11.

  • Bangladesh National Election scheduled for February 12

According to CCTV News, Bangladesh’s Election Commission announced that the national election will be held on February 12, 2026.

  • Hang Seng Index Company to Announce Q4 Quarterly Review

The Hang Seng Index Company will release its Q4 quarterly review on February 13.

  • People’s Bank of China: 150 billion RMB 1-month Treasury Cash Fixed Deposit Tender

On February 10, 2026, from 9:00 to 9:30 AM, the Ministry of Finance and the People’s Bank of China will conduct a tender for the 2026 first phase of the central treasury cash management commercial bank fixed deposit (Phase II) via the PBOC’s central treasury cash management system. The operation volume is 150 billion RMB, with a 1-month (28 days) term, starting on February 10, 2026, and maturing on March 10, 2026 (post-holiday). Bidding will be based on interest rate and single-price winning.

  • Beijing’s Old Car Replacement Subsidy Starts, Up to 20,000 RMB

According to CCTV News, starting February 9, Beijing will implement a new old car replacement subsidy scheme, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 RMB. The “Beijing 2026 Old Car Replacement Subsidy Implementation Plan” includes two categories: “scrap and replace” and “trade-in and replace.” “Scrap and replace” means scrapping old cars and purchasing new ones. For new energy passenger vehicles, a subsidy of 12% of the new car’s sale price will be granted, up to 20,000 RMB.

  • National Highway Toll Exemption for Small Vehicles from 00:00 February 15 to 24:00 February 23

Gao Bo, head of the Transport Service Department of the Ministry of Transport, stated at a State Council Information Office briefing that during the Spring Festival holiday, from 00:00 on February 15 to 24:00 on February 23, tolls will be waived for small passenger cars with 7 seats or fewer on all national expressways.

  • Ministry of Finance to Issue 14 Billion RMB of 1-Month Treasury Bonds in Hong Kong

According to arrangements, the Ministry of Finance will issue the first batch of 2026 RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on February 11, with a total of 14 billion RMB. Specific issuance details will be announced via the Central Debt Management System of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

  • Beijing’s Old Car Replacement Subsidy Starts, Up to 20,000 RMB

According to CCTV News, starting February 9, Beijing will implement a new subsidy scheme for old car replacement, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 RMB. The plan includes two types of subsidies: “scrap and replace” and “trade-in and replace.” For “scrap and replace,” scrapping old cars and buying new ones, especially new energy vehicles, will receive a subsidy of 12% of the purchase price, up to 20,000 RMB.

  • National Highway Toll Exemption for Small Vehicles from 00:00 February 15 to 24:00 February 23

Gao Bo, head of the Transport Service Department of the Ministry of Transport, announced that during the Spring Festival holiday, tolls will be waived for small passenger cars with 7 seats or fewer on all national expressways from 00:00 February 15 to 24:00 February 23.

  • Ministry of Finance to Issue 14 Billion RMB of 1-Month Treasury Bonds in Hong Kong

The Ministry of Finance will issue the first batch of 2026 RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on February 11, with a total of 14 billion RMB, via the China Hong Kong Financial Management System.

  • Beijing’s Old Car Replacement Subsidy Starts, Up to 20,000 RMB

Starting February 9, Beijing will implement a new subsidy scheme for old car replacement, with a maximum of 20,000 RMB. The plan includes “scrap and replace” and “trade-in and replace” categories. For “scrap and replace,” scrapping old cars and purchasing new energy vehicles will receive a subsidy of 12% of the sale price, up to 20,000 RMB.

  • National Highway Toll Exemption for Small Vehicles from 00:00 February 15 to 24:00 February 23

From 00:00 February 15 to 24:00 February 23, all small passenger vehicles with 7 seats or fewer will be exempt from tolls on national expressways during the Spring Festival holiday.

  • The Ministry of Finance will issue 14 billion RMB of 1-month treasury bonds in Hong Kong

On February 11, the Ministry of Finance will conduct a tender for 14 billion RMB of 1-month treasury bonds in Hong Kong, with details to be announced by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

  • SK Hynix to Cancel $8.6 Billion Stock

According to Bloomberg, SK Hynix plans to cancel approximately $8.6 billion worth of treasury stock, aiming to enhance shareholder returns. The chipmaker announced on Wednesday it will cancel about 15.3 million shares on February 9.

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