[Red Envelope] How to survive in a chaotic market?

Happy weekend! Recently, the market has been lacking a main theme of rotation, making it chaotic and difficult to operate. Many friends have encountered obstacles in their trading, and it’s understandable that their moods may be low. In fact, at this special point before the New Year, not doing well is quite normal. Market trends are unpredictable, and the real key is to maintain your trading rhythm and discipline during weak market conditions. Based on my recent real trading experiences, I want to share some honest insights and also reflect deeply on myself.

Since January, I have consistently emphasized in my daily reviews: there are no major market movements before the New Year, so caution is advised in trading. Looking back, the market trend has confirmed this point. Every year, after the crazy stock rallies in November and December and the year-end, the market enters a vacuum period before the Spring Festival. Coupled with the impact of funds withdrawing for holidays, the current chaotic rotation is an inevitable result. Everyone understands this principle, but in practice, I failed to stick to the basic bottom line of short-term trading: starting with small positions at the beginning of the year for trial and error, gradually losing control until full positions, leading to a complete chaos in trading rhythm; from quick, accurate, and decisive short-term trades, to the current sluggish, hesitant approach—this is the root cause of all recent operational issues.

Last week, when stocks like Lio and Aerospace Development showed clear breakdown signals, I was lucky enough to not take timely profits and exit, which ultimately led to a significant profit retracement. Reflecting deeply, there are two core issues: First, I mistakenly placed individual stock logic above market timing. The essence of short-term trading is always to follow the trend. No matter how strong a stock’s logic is, it must rely on a good market environment and timing. Talking about logic outside the market trend is a major short-term taboo; Second, my previous operations were too smooth, which inflated my confidence and led to a mindset of complacency. From the Pingtan and Aerospace Development during the year-end rally to Lio afterward, the smooth sailing caused me to fall into a habitual thinking pattern, still applying the same trading logic from Pingtan’s long-term cycle—this method can amplify profits during major upward phases, but during market lows and chaotic rotations, it only magnifies mistakes infinitely. This is the most fatal oversight of market rhythm.

Friends who know me well know that before Pingtan, I always adhered to the principle of quick, accurate, and decisive short-term trading. But during this period, I completely deviated from my original intention. Actually, I believe many of you also encounter these issues in real trading: initially being extremely optimistic about a stock, deliberately ignoring signals that the market does not approve; from making big gains to significant profit retracement, even turning profits into losses; from following a short-term logic to gradually turning into mid- to long-term stagnation. Ultimately, it all boils down to falling into the most taboo short-term trap of “YY” (wishful thinking), replacing market objective trends with subjective judgment.

So I want to tell everyone that when facing these problems, you must take warning. In short-term trading, discipline always outweighs prediction. During the golden phase of a major upward trend, it’s perfectly fine to add positions and go all-in; but when the market hits lows and chaos, you must reduce your positions or even go completely to cash to hedge risks—after all, even big investors choose to rest and observe. Why should we stubbornly hold on to the market, thinking we are the chosen ones? The market is never about who earns the most in the short term, but about who can survive longer. Stability always comes first, and it is the fundamental rule of survival in this market.

In fact, on the trading journey, the biggest enemy is never the market but your own mental demons. Many problems are clear in our minds, yet we can’t change them. First, because of insufficient self-control; second, because we haven’t truly suffered big losses or felt deep pain. As the old saying goes, “People teach people, but only once,” I used to slap myself or smash cacti when I made mistakes or broke discipline, trying to remind myself externally to compensate for lack of self-control. Of course, this is just my personal method and not recommended for everyone.

As the year comes to an end, I hope everyone can relax and not let short-term trading setbacks affect your mood. Celebrating the New Year happily is the most important thing. We might as well patiently wait for the first wave of major market movements after March, then prepare and go all out to start the new year on a good note. I wish everyone a Happy New Year in advance! May you receive your own New Year red envelopes in the market before the year ends. In the new year, may your journey be smooth, and may you hit the daily limit up without stopping!

Thanks to everyone for your continued support and care. Please remember to like and cheer for us. Also, the live broadcast you’ve been thinking about will be scheduled before the New Year. If you need to communicate during the holiday, you can refer to the content in the first image of the holdings.

In the new year, I hope we can all stay true to our original intentions and strictly follow discipline, steadily moving forward in the market. Wishing everyone a long rainbow path! $Lio Shares (sz002131)$ $Aerospace Development (sz000547)$ $Guli Rigging (sz002342)$