[Red Envelope] 2.6 Review: Recap of the analysis and expected corrections for Monday

Winning soldiers win first and then seek battle----[Taoguba]
In a war, those generals who always win before the battle have often carefully calculated that they have a very high probability of winning this fight before they even engage.
Defeated soldiers fight first and then seek victory---- Those generals who always lose, always start the fight first, and only think about how to win during the battle, so they always fail.
This market is never short of opportunities; what’s lacking is the calm patience to wait and the clarity of self-reflection. Seek inward, and only then can you anchor your direction amid fluctuations. Wait for the wind, follow the trend, and let compound interest create miracles.
The core of trading has never been about frequent trades. Keep your inner peace, avoid being easily influenced by market volatility, trade your plan, plan your trades, multiply your position size based on your win rate and odds, and perfect your trading system.
Slow down, move steadily forward, and that is speed; after all, flowing water does not compete to be first, but it strives to flow endlessly.
Like first, then watch; profit steadily over the years~! Like and watch simultaneously, keep your thoughts clear~! Thanks~!
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1. Overall Market Trend
On Friday morning, a large gap down with low volume again opened significantly lower. Influenced by overseas US stocks, before the open, posts and fellow investors discussed that as long as the Shanghai Composite stayed above 4000 and the Shenzhen 60-day moving average, there were opportunities. Before the opening, the comment area mentioned that US stocks mainly affected our start, but the A-shares have their own rhythm, and after some downward shakeout, the market gradually rose.

Friday Market Expectations

In the chart above, it’s mentioned that rotation markets tend to produce crowded trades. Looking at the intraday trend, within the crowded trades of abnormal movements, the three stocks mentioned on Thursday had decisive results at the open: Zhejiang Wencheng was slightly underperforming, Julee and Hang Electric started with zero-axis open, Julee opened red, Hang Electric opened flat. During the day, Hang Electric recovered and closed higher, Julee experienced large red fluctuations, with high sideways movement, so continue to watch for evolving market styles.

The first to rebound intraday was the Power Grid sector, which was most severely hit on Thursday—Smart Power Grid, Jucheng Electronic, China Western Electric rose about 4%, Hang Electric quickly moved up. In Thursday’s comments, I mentioned holding China Western Electric, which simply means being able to quickly identify market rotation and follow with buy-ins.
On Saturday, I published a dedicated article explaining rotation markets; interested readers can check it out, linked below. https://www.tgb.cn/a/2pdpk2DjD1z

Thursday’s strong retail stocks combined with AIGC (AI-generated content) saw Zhiyuan Technology open without a premium, Zhejiang Wencheng Internet opened with a gap down, indicating this sector is not looking very promising. Among consumer stocks, relatively resilient entertainment stocks like Zhejiang Wencheng Film were hit hard due to Zhejiang Wencheng Internet, while Hengdian Film rebounded and opened higher. Later, Zhejiang stocks like Hengdian Film and others with increased volume opened higher, but Hengdian Film’s rebound was not strong enough to close the gap. Other entertainment stocks like China Film, Bona Film, Wanda Film remained in the red, showing some resilience intraday.

The most severely hit on Thursday was Photovoltaics, which continued to rebound throughout Friday. After the market bottomed on Friday, big tech, technology, lithium batteries, and robotics also rebounded to varying degrees. The tech and robotics sectors showed ultra-dropped, low-volume red K-lines. When the market surged in the morning, PCB and robotics resonated together. Deep South Electric Circuit, which was strong, hit the limit-up but then opened the board, and was halted at the limit. Shu Dian Co., Sheng Hong Technology retraced but remained above the line. Robotics stocks like Wuzhou New Spring, Tianqi Shares, and Puda Precision kept their limit-up actions at close, while Sanhua Intelligent Control, Changying Precision, and Top Group stayed above the line.
Wuzhou New Spring has a name implying the Spring Festival. Lithium stocks like Tianji Shares, Enjie, and Sanxiang New Materials also stayed on the board. During the late session, lithium stocks were more resilient when the market was falling sharply. I personally think part of the reason is that chemical stocks also moved, with Baichuan Shares rebounding, and many lithium and chemical stocks overlapping. Chemical stocks are defensive, so their decline has less impact.
In the afternoon, at the open, Kesen Technology, which hit the limit-up, has dual attributes—robotics and batteries. But looking at the rise of Sanxiang New Materials, it seems Kesen Technology should be classified under batteries. Another sector that surged strongly at the open was computing power data centers, Qianwen concept—Data Port and Runjian Shares followed and then retreated.
Later, the photovoltaic sector saw GCL System Integration rebound strongly, with a three-day limit-up. Yesterday, the entire photovoltaic sector was sharply sold off, but GCL’s two-day limit-up and subsequent steady rebound exceeded expectations. The core stocks in this sector are expected to perform well.
Over the weekend, Elon Musk gave an interview saying he plans to build data centers in space within three years, which is much more impressive than what the president of China’s Photovoltaic Industry Association said.
Before GCL’s rebound, at 1:38 PM, Shenjian Shares hit a two-day limit-up in Commercial Aerospace, and at 2:10 PM, Galaxy Electronic hit the limit-up in Commercial Aerospace. It’s better not to pick more recognizable stocks like Julee Sockets, as aerospace development is underperforming—“whack-a-mole” behavior isn’t very friendly to the sector.
After 2 PM, the market experienced many rotation directions. The large tech stocks that resonated in the morning with low volume and red closed lower, with robotics and lithium batteries being relatively resilient. The market closed in red overall.

Throughout the day, I will remind and interact in various ways. Half of the valuable insights are in the review, and more are in my replies in the comments section. You can set me as “Special Attention” so you won’t miss posts, and also leave comments and likes to become a Silver Fan; I believe my style and communication show I don’t boast or talk nonsense, I don’t do hype. Trading requires a calm mind, avoiding anxiety—slow is fast. If you can, support me with tips; I look forward to the day someone becomes my first Gold Fan here on Taoguba~! I put my heart into every post, sharing valuable insights, making each post a highlight. Just give 7 “likes” if you find it helpful, no need for more. Tips depend on your gains and situation—let’s work together. Thank you all.

2. Market Expectations
Looking back at Friday, if the market had stayed below water longer before bouncing back in the afternoon, Monday’s outlook would be clearer. The market opened deep, quickly oscillated, then rallied, and finally fell back in panic, adding uncertainty.
For Monday’s prediction, Thursday’s overall market outlook remains unchanged: Shanghai Composite above 4000, Shenzhen 60-day line are strong supports. The closer to these levels, the more opportunities there are.

The intraday pattern on Friday saw the market rebound from deep water to green, then panic selling at the close. After the close, I think the probability of recovery on Monday is high. Even if there’s another dip below water on Monday, it will likely be an opportunity to open or add positions. The overall trend on Monday is uncertain, but the probability of a steady correction is higher. Coupled with the US stocks’ big rally after hours, if the market opens lower on Monday, it will probably rise quickly; if it opens higher, some panic selling might occur, but overall it’s a buying opportunity for chips.

3. Market Style
As of Friday, rotation still dominates, and the profit effect is in buying the dips during large declines. In major shifts, pay attention to the relationship between tech stocks and old leading stocks.

4. Data Presentation

5. Random Notes–
On Saturday, I posted a technical article explaining that rotation markets are formed through capital consensus. Interested readers can learn more.
https://www.tgb.cn/a/2pdpk2DjD1z Still the same question:
If the market recovers on Monday with one sector leading strongly, do you prefer:
A: Aerospace + Photovoltaics
B: Photovoltaics
C: Consumer
D: AIGC + Computing Power
E: Robotics
F: Lithium Batteries
G: Others
Think about it and share your reasons why you believe it will be this sector.
And keep encouraging~! Short-term trading without stable profits over 6 months is not recommended; consider reducing your positions. This depends on your willingness—only those who are receptive will listen. Of course, I hope everyone gets better and more stable, and makes money~!
Throughout the day, I will remind and interact in various ways. Half of the valuable insights are in the review, and more are in my replies in the comments section. You can set me as “Special Attention” so you won’t miss posts, and also leave comments and likes to become a Silver Fan; I believe my style and communication show I don’t boast or talk nonsense, I don’t do hype. Trading requires a calm mind, avoiding anxiety—slow is fast. If you can, support me with tips; I look forward to the day someone becomes my first Gold Fan here on Taoguba~! I put my heart into every post, sharing valuable insights, making each post a highlight. Just give 7 “likes” if you find it helpful, no need for more. Tips depend on your gains and situation—let’s work together. Thank you all.

Thanks to the bosses who supported Yu Nian with tips in yesterday’s technical post~!
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@BinbinNiu@XingLan@HHDaYanjing@PaoPao1018@LingYuCheYe@AiChiMiHouTaoDeRen@QiNiuZhuFeng@DongBeiXuan
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Thanks to the bosses who supported Yu Nian yesterday with tips~! Please welcome Long Yi to Long Wu!

@XinShengZhiLu @QingYiXiaKe @QiNiuZhuFeng @LiuJinSuiYue1188 @CuanYuanYouShan8 @CangYueZhiSen @SuiYueCangTang @BaoChao @Med789 @HaoMenShengZheFeiGe
May the bosses who support and tip in the future stay calm amid the market fluctuations, steadily build their logic, and step forward with confidence!~ Wishing everyone great wealth~!~! Also thanks to friends who liked and interacted~!!~!

Spread the word through writing, assist with friendship, walk together all the way, grateful for the encounter. Sending a red envelope adds joy—both a blessing for your trading and an invitation for everyone to like and interact, to bring good fortune and increase communication. On the trading journey, let’s communicate through words and move forward steadily~! Like to receive a red envelope, share the good luck!��

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Waiting for opportunities requires the ability to recognize them. This involves long hours of watching the market, developing intuition, and cultivating a trading system— the 10,000-hour rule. No rush. If you have questions, ask; I will answer when I am here.
About myself, I was invited here; how long I stay is unknown. For very novice investors, I suggest lowering your positions; for those with over 2 years of short-term trading experience or in a bottleneck, I can help a lot.
Finally: There are many true and false things out there. Time will help you discern authenticity and strength. Don’t pretend—your gains and losses won’t act in a play for you.