Copper Price Forecast 2026: Key Market News and Outlook

The copper market entered 2026 with heightened expectations following a year of significant volatility. Supply constraints, robust global demand, and persistent geopolitical tensions created a complex backdrop for copper price movements in 2025, and these dynamics are expected to shape market conditions well into 2026. Recent developments in major mining operations have intensified focus on what experts are calling a potential extended market deficit, driving substantial interest in copper price forecasting for the year ahead.

Supply-Side Pressures Define the Copper Price Landscape

The copper supply story of 2025 and beyond centers on multiple production disruptions that have fundamentally reshaped market expectations. Early in 2025, BHP’s Escondida mine—the world’s largest copper operation—experienced temporary production halts. However, the more consequential disruption emerged late in the year when a catastrophic incident at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia flooded the primary mining block, claiming seven lives and forcing a complete operational shutdown. The company now plans a phased restart of the Grasberg mining block beginning mid-2026, with full production recovery not anticipated until 2027.

Similarly problematic has been the situation at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A seismic event in May 2025 triggered flooding that suspended mining activities. While some underground work has resumed, the company shifted to processing stockpiled materials. According to December guidance, these reserves will deplete during early 2026, forcing reduced annual production targets of 380,000 to 420,000 metric tons before recovery to normal levels in 2027.

Relief may arrive through the anticipated restart of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine. Shut down in November 2023 following a court order, the Panamanian government authorized a review of the mining lease in September 2025, with operations expected to resume in late 2025 or early 2026. However, ramping back to full production will require time, likely delaying meaningful copper supply contributions to market-tight conditions.

Jacob White, exchange-traded fund product manager at Sprott Asset Management, emphasized the critical importance of these disruptions to 2026’s market balance: “Grasberg remains a significant disruption that will persist through 2026, and the situation is similar to constraints at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula, which experienced output cuts this year. We believe these outages will keep the market in deficit in 2026.”

Demand Drivers Propel Copper Price Growth Expectations

Copper demand continues climbing due to energy transition investments, artificial intelligence infrastructure expansion, data center growth, and rapid urbanization across developing economies. The 2025 market witnessed an unusual demand surge tied to US tariff concerns, as traders accelerated refined copper imports to pre-empt potential trade barriers. Refined copper inflows into the United States surged throughout 2025, building inventory to 750,000 metric tons.

Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals demand analyst at StoneX, identified a “perfect storm” emerging in late 2025’s fourth quarter. This convergence includes easing China-US trade tensions, US interest rate reductions, and China’s adoption of a new five-year plan spanning 2026 to 2031—elements historically supportive for copper price increases.

China’s economic trajectory warrants particular attention for copper demand projections. The Chinese real estate sector, historically the largest copper demand driver, remains troubled following its 2021 collapse. Despite government stimulus efforts, Reuters reports anticipate 3.7 percent home price declines in 2025, with continued weakness expected into 2026. However, the broader Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in 2025, achieving approximately 4.9 percent growth, with expectations for 4.8 percent growth in 2026 driven by high-tech exports.

China’s new five-year plan prioritizes infrastructure upgrades and new energy development, creating structural demand for copper. According to Jacob White, “Weakness in the property market is likely to continue in 2026, but the story for copper is constructive. Policy focus and capital are expected to prioritize expanding the electricity grid, upgrading manufacturing, renewables and AI-related data centers. These copper-intensive areas are set to more than compensate for a subdued property market, yielding net growth in China’s copper demand next year.”

The Copper Price Deficit Widens Over Coming Years

The International Copper Study Group’s October 2025 forecast projected mine production growth of 2.3 percent in 2026 to 23.86 million metric tons, while refined production was expected to increase only 0.9 percent to 28.58 million metric tons. Against this modest supply expansion, refined copper demand was forecast to grow 2.1 percent to 28.73 million metric tons—creating an anticipated 150,000 metric ton deficit for 2026.

Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, characterized copper as his highest-confidence trade for 2026 due to demand expansion outpacing new supply. “These things are taking years to fix—so let’s say it takes some of them a year to get fixed and back on track, some of them two years. We’re looking at 2027; by then, the copper demand side will have kicked up even more. My base case is actually for copper deficits to broaden in the next couple of years, then just continue broadening,” he explained.

The new supply pipeline faces its own constraints. While Arizona Sonoran Copper Company’s Cactus project and the Rio Tinto-BHP Resolution venture represent future supply additions, both remain years from production. These projects “may add tonnage at the margin,” according to White, “but demand growth is likely to outpace any supply additions, which points to further supply deficits that escalate over the coming years.”

A May 2025 UN Conference on Trade and Development report emphasized the scale of the challenge: copper demand is expected to grow 40 percent by 2040, requiring US$250 billion in investment capital and construction of 80 new mines. The report identified concerning geographic concentration, with half of the world’s copper reserves located in just five countries: Chile, Australia, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Russia. These regions face challenges extending beyond declining ore grades to include geopolitical risk and extended permitting timelines.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis forecasts copper demand increasing 24 percent by 2035 to 43 million metric tons annually. Balancing this market will require 8 million metric tons of new mine supply plus 3.5 million metric tons from recycled material—a substantial production gap given current pipeline capacity.

Copper Price Outlook and Investment Implications

The convergence of constrained near-term supply and persistent structural demand creates a bullish environment for copper prices in 2026. Jacob White highlighted several supporting factors: “Low inventories and mine and concentrate deficits support higher prices, and tariff threats may not be over. Regional price differentials and high physical premiums are likely to continue.” Such conditions typically translate to elevated pricing and reduced supplier flexibility.

Natalie Scott-Gray projected 2026 average copper prices climbing to US$10,635 per metric ton, with provisional highs potentially proving prohibitive for price-sensitive industrial buyers. Market participants may respond by accelerating “just-in-time” purchasing approaches from alternative sources such as bonded warehouses or direct smelter acquisitions, potentially supporting continued price firmness.

Consumers facing sustained high copper prices may explore substitution possibilities with aluminum in applications where practical compatibility exists. However, Scott-Gray cautioned that such switches face inherent limitations in many industrial applications. Evidence of market sentiment emerged in a London Metal Exchange poll, where 40 percent of respondents identified copper as the best-performing base metal expected in 2026.

As 2026 unfolds, the copper price dynamics will likely remain shaped by mine restart timelines, China’s macroeconomic trajectory, and global energy transition acceleration. The current deficit environment, supported by structural demand growth and delayed new supply availability, positions the copper market for sustained price pressure throughout the year.