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ETH breaks above 2000, are you a "qualified product" or a "defective item"?
I haven't finished yesterday's Pu'er tea, and $ETH jumped from 1866 to above 2100.
The market is buzzing with excitement, all shouting to chase higher towards 3000.
Let me pour some cold water: stay calm.
We bought some low positions at 1870 yesterday, trading isn't a dinner party where no one will always indulge you. The current pullback isn't just a simple "bonus distribution," but a harsh "stress test."
Don't be fooled by the rally; we're now at the most critical "shift period":
1. 2100 is a "hard nut"
Looking at the 4-hour chart, after falling from 3000, countless trapped positions (stop-loss orders) accumulated around 2100. When it surged to 2095, it was slapped back down (with a long upper shadow on the 15-minute chart), indicating heavy selling pressure above. The main players aren't philanthropists; they won't push through the selling pressure with money. They need to retreat—to force those above to cut losses and scare those below to exit.
2. Retesting 2000 is to "solidify the foundation"
Since we've broken above the 2000 threshold, the main players must go back and test it. It's like building a house—after pouring the concrete (breaking 2000), you need to wait for it to dry and harden (confirm support with a retest) before building the second floor. If the foundation isn't stable, the building will collapse faster.
3. The secret of volume
Looking at the 1-hour chart, rising with increased volume and retracing with decreased volume is a good sign. But that doesn't mean you can buy recklessly. Decreasing volume indicates the main players are "placing orders and waiting," waiting for retail traders to panic and sell their chips, often at lower prices than you think.
Since you understand that the main players are "retreating to confirm" and "digesting selling pressure," never catch a falling knife at the halfway point (2100). Even if you miss it, don't make mistakes. We wait for it to be thoroughly dipped.
📝 Trading Strategy
Direction: 📈 Low buy (trend reversal early stage, retests are opportunities, but patience is needed)
Accumulation zone: 2020 - 2040
Reason: The 2000 integer level as a defense zone + strong support from the 1-hour moving average. If the main players break through here, they will likely build a "flood barrier."
Stop loss: 🛑 1975
Reason: Critical! Yesterday's stop-loss was tight; today it must be wider. The retest may probe around 1980. If it effectively breaks below 1975, it indicates that 2000 was just a "one-day wonder," a false breakout, and you should accept the loss and exit.
Target levels:
First target: 🎯 2088 (near the previous high of 2095)
Second target: 🚀 2130 (strong resistance on the 4-hour level)
The hardest part of trading isn't losing money, but making money.
When losing, you'll be cautious; when making money, you'll become arrogant.
Right now, the main players are conducting "factory quality inspections" at the 2000 level.
Are you the qualified "patient" product that can withstand loneliness, or the defective item that gets淘汰 at the slightest shake?