Day 12 · Understanding the Market's "Narrative Cycle": Find Your Position in the Repeating Script

Good morning, cycle observer.
This is #币圈100天成长计划 day 12/100.
🔄 The market has nothing new, only old narratives with changing protagonists.
From "store of value" to "DeFi Lego," from "NFT avatars" to "metaverse land," and then to "AI agents"… each wave seems entirely new, but the cycle of enthusiasm, diffusion, peak, and dissipation at its core repeats with tidal precision.
Most people come when a new narrative reaches its peak but leave scarred when the narrative shifts. Because they only see different stories but fail to see through the same script.
💎 Today's Thinking Model: Four Positions in the Narrative Cycle
Learn to identify which stage of the narrative cycle you are in, and adjust your stance:
1️⃣ Sprouting Stage (Unnoticed)
· Characteristics: Complex technology, vague applications, only a few geeks discuss.
· Stance: Deep research, small-scale positioning, build cognitive reserves.
2️⃣ Growth Stage (Consensus Formation)
· Characteristics: Leading projects emerge, use cases become clear, mainstream media start reporting.
· Stance: Increase positions, focus on the strongest value capture points within the ecosystem.
3️⃣ Fervor Stage (Bubble Expansion)
· Characteristics: Widespread discussion, absurd valuations, slogans like "disrupt everything" prevail.
· Stance: Gradually realize profits, shift to earlier-stage emerging narratives, or hold stable assets.
4️⃣ Decline Stage (Value Reversion)
· Characteristics: Narratives collapse, doubts arise, but infrastructure and genuine users settle.
· Stance: Observe calmly, pick up undervalued core assets with real demand from the ruins.
✨ Key Action: Draw Your "Narrative Cycle Map"
Use time as the horizontal axis and attention as the vertical axis, and try to position the current stage of 1-2 core tracks you follow (such as Layer2, DePin, AI, etc.). This helps shift from being "driven by narratives" to "driving the rhythm of narratives."
Don't chase narratives; master the wavelength of the cycle.
👇 For a track or project you've recently been following, which stage of the narrative cycle do you think it is in? What is your basis for this judgment?
Share your cycle perspective.
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