Why are only Zhongtong and Jitu so aggressive in the logistics industry, while others are all soft?

The logistics sector holds some companies, mainly SF Holdings’ A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as well as KLN, and a small amount of JD Logistics. There is also a logistics ETF (SH:516530) with an overall holding ratio of about 5-6% of the entire portfolio, which is a relatively large position. Previously, Zhongtong and Yuantong had their phases, earning a few points briefly before being sold off. After comprehensive comparison, I felt SF was the strongest, and the top 10 heavy holdings in the logistics ETF also look quite excellent, so I also bought a little bit of it. Although logistics is hard work, this industry is very stable in reality and not prone to large fluctuations.

Most logistics companies have relatively heavy asset attributes, but precisely because of this, a relatively stable competitive pattern has formed so far. The main issue in the industry is the fierce competition in express delivery, while other bulk commodity logistics are relatively stable.

I have basically reviewed all the major express companies, including SF Holdings, JD Logistics, Zhongtong Express, and Yuantong; and based on actual logistics experience, company governance, shareholder returns, valuation, etc., I chose SF Holdings as the main position, while also holding some Kerry Logistics (now renamed KLN) acquired by SF and a portion of JD Logistics for observation, and abandoned Zhongtong and Yuantong.

However, to my surprise, since I sold Zhongtong above 140 and switched to SF, not long after, Zhongtong’s stock price shot up as if on drugs, ignoring everything and moving upward, completely opposite to SF. It can be said that, in the logistics industry, only Zhongtong and Jitu are quite strong; the others have shown a soft and weak stance. Since the logistics ETF holds A-shares, it missed out on the gains of Zhongtong and Jitu.

Actually, until now, I still can’t see why Zhongtong has been so strong recently. I still don’t know where I went wrong.

Fortunately, SF has recently rebounded, and the logistics ETF has been drifting upward, so there are some profits.

But life is just like that—very helpless. You research, judge, decide, and think you’re right, but the market will tell you you’re wrong.

This is why every investment leaves room for error and tolerance. To survive long in this market, confidence and diligence are both important, but overconfidence must be avoided. $Jitu Express-W(01519)$ $SF Holdings(SZ002352)$ $Logistics ETF Yinhua(SH516530)$