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#当前行情抄底还是观望？ The global market is currently in a "panic sell-off" phase. It is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach and avoid blindly bottom-fishing. Market sentiment is extremely fragile, and any rebound may just be a "dead cat bounce" (a brief rally followed by further decline).
1. Market Status: Full-scale Collapse, Panic Spreading
• Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin drops below $64,000, halving from last year's high; Ethereum falls below $1,800, with over 430,000 traders liquidated in 24 hours, market liquidity drying up.
• Gold and US Stocks: Gold retreats from a high of $5,000, US tech stocks plummet, and the market is experiencing a double blow of "deleveraging" and "valuation destruction."
2. Why recommend waiting?
1. Leverage Liquidation Not Over: Many high-leverage positions are still on the brink of liquidation. If prices continue to fall, it will trigger chain liquidations, causing a spiral decline.
2. Extreme Fear: The market fear and greed index drops to 12 (extreme fear). Institutional funds continue to flow out, market confidence collapses. Bottom-fishing now risks getting caught in the middle of a decline.
3. Technical Breakdown: Bitcoin has broken below key support levels, entering a technical bear market. A trend reversal will take time to repair.
3. Trading Strategy: Wait for Right-Side Signals
• Don't Catch Falling Knives: In a downtrend, avoid trying to catch falling knives, as it’s easy to get hurt. Be patient and wait for the market to stabilize.
• Watch Key Levels: Monitor whether Bitcoin can hold at $60,000, and whether gold can stay above $4,800. If prices consolidate at these levels without making new lows, it may be a good entry point.
• Control Position Size: If you really want to trade, suggest taking a small position and setting strict stop-losses to prevent deep losses.
Summary: Current market risks far outweigh opportunities. Protecting your principal is more important than chasing rebounds. Be patient and wait for the market panic to subside, and only act after clear signs of a bottom are confirmed.