Five days. Livermore: 2.6 Review Record

Simply put, today’s market situation. [Taogu Ba]

The market that was supposed to decline has probably already finished its decline. Currently, it’s generally a situation where prices are falling more. In the next five trading days, these markets are likely to see a rebound, but the strength of the rebound needs to be observed for now. The market before the holiday was originally more oriented towards consumption, but the consumption sector that rose yesterday has generally stalled today, with some even experiencing significant declines. Therefore, it is not advisable to chase after rising or surging markets now, even during the Spring Festival season. Yesterday, after consumption rose, various institutions’ opinions in the evening suggested that the holiday would be longer than usual, and the data should be better than previous Spring Festivals. This is an inevitable outcome. However, the market does not simply look at data growth year-over-year; it also considers the average daily growth rate. Otherwise, it would be somewhat self-deceptive.

Next week, more attention should be paid to the technology sector. Recently, various negative news about technology stocks has caused significant declines. These news are mostly baseless, with the only justification being concerns about an AI bubble. But it’s hard to pinpoint exactly where the bubble exists. Similarly, it’s difficult to clearly identify growth points. This means that there are reasons for both rises and falls. The key is the market’s capital attitude. If the attitude is strong enough, the market can continue to rise.

As long as trading volume remains above two trillion yuan, there is no need to worry too much. In recent days, market funds have been supporting the market. Small and mid-cap stocks are continuously attracting capital, and market sentiment is beginning to recover. However, in the current large-cap market, there isn’t much capital entering. But some large-cap stocks that have fallen sharply may see some institutional bottom-fishing next week. Whether the banking sector continues to decline will be crucial. If it keeps falling, the large-cap sector will start to rebound, especially those sectors that have recently experienced sharp declines. It’s worth paying more attention to them. The negative news causing their declines can be ignored as mere background noise.