Analyst: Long-term Bitcoin holders are on the brink of a structural capitulation or approaching the "final severe decline" of the bear market.

GateUser-6433627c · 2026-02-06T07:54:18+00:00

On February 6th, analyst Murphy pointed out that as of February 5th, several long-term holder indicators are approaching critical levels, showing that long-term holders are generally at a loss. This serves as a warning that the market may experience intense volatility, suggesting that the final stage of the bear market is imminent.

GateUser-6433627c

2026-02-06 07:54:18

Abstract generation in progress

On February 6th, on social media, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that as of February 5th, several key long-term holder (LTH) indicators have approached critical levels: LTH-RPRL (Realized Profit and Loss Ratio) and LTH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) 7-day EMAs have both fallen back to 1, indicating that long-term holders are no longer profitable overall and are on the verge of structural capitulation. Meanwhile, a large influx of “long-term and unprofitable” chips into trading platforms may signal that the market is approaching the “last straw that breaks the camel’s back.” Once LTHs begin to collapse entirely, it often corresponds to the final intense volatility phase of each bear market, and is also the darkest moment before dawn.

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