First Capital Futures: Cost-driven, soybean meal continues to rebound mildly

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-06T07:48:21+00:00

Today, the soybean meal market experienced a mild rebound, influenced by a significant rise in U.S. soybeans, but the decline in Brazil's basis limited the cost increase. The spot market remains cautious, with high inventories suppressing demand. It is expected that soybean meal prices will remain volatile at low levels, and the market's reaction to the soybean meal inventory release news remains negative.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-06 07:48:21

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Today, the domestic soybean meal market continues to stabilize and rebound from lows. Overnight, U.S. soybeans continued to rise significantly, with March contracts up 1.72% or 18.75 cents per bushel, as the market continues to anticipate China’s additional purchases of old-crop U.S. soybeans. However, the Brazil CNF basis spreads for nearby and deferred shipments continue to decline by 5-15 cents per bushel, limiting the increase in soybean costs. Therefore, soybean-related futures remain strong externally but weak internally.

In the spot market, sentiment is cautious, and pre-holiday stocking is mostly completed. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories remain at seasonal high levels compared to previous years, and the ample supply situation suppresses downstream sentiment. The market generally expects soybean meal spot prices to decline. Additionally, overnight rumors of soybean meal stockpiling by the second batch further dampen downstream confidence.

Overall, the Chinese demand for additional U.S. soybean purchases in soybean futures trading carries significant uncertainty and has limited impact on domestic prices. After the holiday, futures prices are gradually returning to Brazilian soybeans. Given that South American soybean supplies are unlikely to face major issues, soybean meal prices are expected to remain mainly range-bound at low levels. (First Capital Futures)

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